And like a ritual that had to be gone through, they would indulge in acts of violence on both these days - targetting railway tracks or oil installations or pipelines, hurling bombs at police outposts or individual policemen, letting off improvised explosive devices (IEDs) which mostly killed innocent men, women and children, as if to let people know that they were still “alive and kicking.”

But this year, though the boycott call was given, no acts of violence were committed. And this, when the ULFA “C-in-C” Mr. Paresh Barua is still at large and still determined to carry on what he calls the “freedom struggle.” This is being considered a significant development by the political circles. Does it suggest that the police and the security forces have been able to penetrate the ULFA's armed wing and gathered timely information to foil any moves to disturb the Republic Day? Or does it mean that Mr. Barua, despite his verbal belligerence, does not really want to jeopardise the peace-talks that are expected to begin soon between the jailed ULFA leaders, including its Chairman, Mr. Arabinda Rajkhowa and the Government?

The general impression is that it is the people's growing disillusionment with the ULFA and its methods and their intense desire for permanent peace in a State which has suffered from violence for decades that have compelled the outfit to pause and ponder. This impression has been further strengthened by Mr. Mrinal Hazarika, a spokesman of the pro-talk group of ULFA. Mr. Hazarika is the former commander of the outfit's dreaded 28 battalion who, along with some others, defied Mr. Paresh Barua, came overground and declared a unilateral ceasefire in June, 2008.

Mr. Hazarika told the Press after meeting Mr. Rajkhowa late last month that the imprisoned ULFA leaders were holding “marathon discussions” on the issue of starting peace talks and were likely to take a final decision about it “very soon”. At the same time he made it clear that for the talks to begin, the jailed leaders must be released first as no meaningful talks could be held with “handcuffs on.” Also, that the talks must be “unconditional”, implying that the question of Assam's sovereignty could also be discussed - something that the Government has consistently ruled out. The agenda of the talks, he suggested, could be finalised by the two sides at the negotiation table. He made the significant statement that while they wanted Mr. Paresh Barua to be a party to the peace process, “we cannot wait for him indefinitely”. The talks had to begin and begin soon, with the participation of Mr. Barua, if possible, and without him, if necessary. Obviously, there is tremendous pressure from the people to initiate the peace process.

Last month, a seminar was held at Shillong on the “Impact of Insurgency in North-East India on the Socio-Economic Development”. It was attended by the Speakers of the north-eastern States and of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. Intriguingly, while most Speakers said that lack of development was primarily responsible for breeding insurgency in the region, Mr. K. Peseyie, Speaker of Nagaland - the State that may be said to have “pioneered” armed insurgency in the north-east - sprang a surprise by holding insurgency to be the “root cause” of the region's backwardness!

Anyway, the people not only of Assam but of the entire region are looking forward to the opening of formal talks between the Government and the ULFA. What could be the “irreducible minimum” for the ULFA leaders at the talks, whenever these are held? “Greater autonomy which will function like a federating unit where all indigenous groups will have a role to play,” says Mr. Hazarika. Easier said than given. First there has to be unanimity in defining “autonomy” and deciding on its actual content. So, the talks are likely to be prolonged, with a good deal of hard bargaining by the ULFA.

The demand for autonomy is likely to arouse immediate sympathy and support from a cross section of the people. It may be recalled that when the Asom Gana Parishad was in power, it had convened an all-India meet on State Autonomy which was attended by many non-Congress Chief Ministers including the then Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Mr.. Farooq Abdullah. They lent their support to widen the powers of the States vis-à-vis the Centre. Other organisations like the powerful All Assam Students' Union (AASU) and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chhatra Parishad (AJYCP) also support it.

If autonomy helps fostering the region's sense of being and belonging with the rest of the country, it will be good. If the ULFA is willing to give up the demand for sovereignty and prepared for a settlement within the framework of the Constitution and the Centre shows accommodation, a mutually agreed solution will be comparatively easy to arrive at. (IPA Service)