The transitory phase began after the action-packed Assembly and Ellenabad polls. The Congress unexpectedly failed to secure a majority in the Assembly elections which saw the resurgence of Indian National Lok Dal who gained 31 seats in the 90-member House against its nine in 2005 Assembly poll. The Congress also lost Ellenabad by-election. Despite its defeat in the prematurely held Assembly elections, the party was able to form its government by luring the support of Independents. Later it managed to gain its own majority by engineering defection of five of the six MLAs of the Bhajan Lal-Kuldeep Bishnoi father-son duo's Haryana Janhit Congress.

Despite the huge sops the Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led government started giving soon after assuming power in 2005, the ruling party lost the Assembly polls partly because of its infighting and ruling leadership's over-confidence. Notwithstanding their claims and counter-claims, the outcome of Ellenabad by-election was, however, both a victory and defeat for the winner and the loser. The INLD had the satisfaction of retaining its seat but its vote share saw a big fall of ten thousand compared to its 2009 tally. On the other hand, the Congress lost the fiercely fought contest despite being in power. But it succeeded in making a dent in the INLD's traditional bastion by increasing its poll percentage.

Although the conclusion of the Assembly elections and Ellenabad by-poll has signaled the beginning of state politics' transitory phase, the situation indicates a change in the health of Haryana's mainstream political parties. The impression of Congress's ostensibly robust health as reflected by its resounding victory in the 2005 elections has got a beating. With the passage of time the subdued dissidence in the party became vocal before the 2009 Assembly poll. Despite the party high command's apparent pro-Hooda tilt, the dissenting voices may start openly asserting.

The intensity of the anti-Hooda campaign of the dissidents and the Opposition will depend on how deftly Chief Minister handles his political and governance challenges. Hooda's image has undergone a sea change since his assuming Chief Ministership in 2005. His TV images of the time of his selection as Chief Minister in 2005 were that of an awe-struck and baffled person. Even many of the Haryana Congress bigwigs predicted his failure as Chief Minister. But his five year's Chief Ministership has proved him to be an astute politician. No doubt, his governance showed many shortcomings, particularly in keeping the bureaucracy and police in leash, perhaps due to his “do-no-harm” nature. But the way he handled the post-2009 Assembly poll crisis showed the political management skills he has acquired. The application of these skills for effectively curbing the khap panchayat menace, however, is still elusive.

Apart from the problems the party dissidents may pose, Hooda's main political challenge will come from the INLD. The main opposition party will use price rise, power shortage, deteriorated law and order and corruption issues to corner the government. Though corruption, poor law and order and political vendetta and terror during the INLD supremo Chautala's 1999-2005 rule had inflicted deep scars on the state's body-politic, yet the party's anti-government onslaughts will, with the passage of time, have their impact as peoples memory is short. Besides, the Hooda government may not be able to offer sops on the scale it did during 2005-2009 which have contributed to the financial crunch the government is currently facing. It is premature to predict if, and how much, his government will be able to mobilize additional resources to overcome its financial problems. But it has four pre-2014 election years to cushion any adverse impact of new resource mobilization measures if it undertakes them.

Like the ruling Congress, politics will not be a smooth-sailing affair for INLD. Its main problems would arise from its inability to make inroads into the Rohtak-Jhajjar-Sonipat Deswal Jat belt, disproportionate assets cases against Om Parkash Chautala and his two sons Ajay and Abhey and disunity in the opposition parties.

The Deswal Jat belt is Hooda's pocket borough. Even the late Devi Lal, the influential Jat leader and father of Chautala who had contested Lok Sabha elections from the area was defeated by Hooda. Chautalas second problem will be the disproportionate assets cases initiated by the CBI against them for allegedly amassing nearly Rs.1500 crore assets during the Chautala rule. The CBI has already filed chargesheets against Ajay and Abhey and has sought Haryana Assembly Speaker's permission to prosecute the former Chief Minister. The issue would hang as a Damocles Sword over Chautalas head.

The other negative political factor for the INLD is the opposition parties poor health and their disunity. BJP and Bhajan Lal's HJC have deeply lost ground. Some of their as also of INLD and BSP leaders deserted their parties before the elections to join the Congress. BJP, HJC and BSP did not even put up candidates for Ellenabad by-election. With the passage of time, their electoral compulsions may force them to join hands. Feeble signs of expressing sympathy for each other's causes are already visible.

The above factors and the trends they acquire in the coming period would determine the direction of Haryana politics. In any case, it will not be all smooth-sailing for Haryana's mainstream political parties. (IPA Service)