In all probability, the modern history of the world would be redefined as pre and post coronavirus phases. So devastating are the forecasts. No agency in the world, including governments, howsoever powerful they may be, is in a position to foretell, let alone plan, for what is likely to happen.

It is not even possible to say with any uncertainty that any country has managed to see the deadly virus off. Latest reports indicate that Asia is already bracing up for a second bout of the virus attack, with a couple of deaths being reported from Wuhan just days after the Chinese epicentre of the deadly virus declared that things are back to normal.

IMF has already declared that the world is facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. A UN study said 81% of the world's workforce of 3.3 billion people have had their place of work fully or partly closed because of the outbreak. Emerging markets and developing countries are likely to be the hardest hit. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has described the crisis as the worst since the Second World War.

So far India seems to have done reasonably well in containing the spread of the disease, thanks to the timely declaration of a national lockdown, which the worst-affected countries, including the US, failed to do with disastrous results. But India’s success itself is far from conclusive as the latest trends show signs of the outbreak taking the shape of community infection.

In all likelihood, the lockdown is being extended to prevent the pandemic, but lockdown as a cure is worse than the disease. Already, the economy is in a hopeless situation and economic growth prospects are seen bordering zero. The first phase of lockdown itself has thrown the economy and the life of people out of gear, with no means of livelihood left for the vast majority.

The government has announced a few measures to help various sector absorb the shock, but these are woefully inadequate to handle the problem at hand. Worse still, these measures leave out the most crucial informal sector, which provides livelihood to an overwhelming majority.

The ILO has painted a gloomy picture for countries like India where the informal sector accounts for the maximum employment. According to the organisation, the covid lockdown and other containment measures are already affecting tens of millions of informal workers. With a share of almost 90 per cent of people working in the informal economy, about 400 million workers in the informal economy are at risk of falling deeper into poverty during the crisis, it says. Thousands of them have already returned to their rural roots, aggravating both health and economic challenges.

ILO stresses the need for immediate support for most-affected sectors and population groups, particularly small businesses and workers operating in the informal economy. The suggested remedies include specific and targeted measures such as cash transfers to support those who are most affected by the lockdown and repurposing production to provide alternative employment. This needs to be supplemented by efforts to ensure adequate supply of food and other essentials. Local, community-based initiatives can work quickly and cater for specific needs, and should include representative organizations of those in the informal economy, it suggests.

Along with supporting those in the informal economy, efforts are needed to support formal workers and enterprises to ensure that they do not fall back into informality as a result of the crisis and erode gains made in recent years. It is also critical to ensure that public resources will be used to support employment and income for workers. Therefore, financial and non-financial support can be strategically provided to encourage enterprises to retain and/or create jobs.

According to ILO, the relevant mix of economy-wide and targeted measures needs to consider national circumstances, including the structure of the economy, existing inequality trends, and labour market institutions that can best deliver policies. A major focus area of the organisation’s recommendations is the need to find the resources to allow the introduction of direct fiscal stimulus measures to support enterprises and incomes as long as the crisis continues through policy coherence and whole-of-government approach.

But this is an area where the Modi government has a miserable track record so far. And that shows the magnitude of the problem staring at the face of every Indian. (IPA Service)