Even if only a handful of those who had gathered were covid positive, it is open guess how many more would have been affected by the invidious virus. The gains of a period of lock-down might have been negated by that one gathering. The incident thus throws up lesson for course correction on Covid-19 strategies. So, as we waded into a further period of lock-down till May 3, apart from forced idleness, there is need to plan what should be the nation’s action programme in between and beyond.

With the Covid-19 invasion, we have suddenly been thrown into a war situation. It is war far worse than conventional warfare. It is a multi-faceted war. It is a grim war against an invidious infection, which is spreading without the victims knowing it. The fight with the medical emergency is destroying the economy at the same time. Employment, income generation has been wiped out. The upshot is uncertainty about the future.

But seeing what is happening elsewhere in the world, there appears no alternative to a prolonged lock down to check the spread of this illness. We will simply be swamped if infection levels rise in this hugely populated country, having only limited medical amenities, notwithstanding official boasting about rustling up facilities for tackling coin patients.

At the same time, it is impossible to ignore the annihilation of the Indian economy and whatever we had gained over the last three decades. It is a sure shot that the economy will not grow. We will be happy if we can minimise its contraction. But, above all, it is the human cost that we are witnessing every day these past three weeks which is numbing the mind. It is impossible to ignore the sheer suffering of the weakest sections of society.

Very little has been done to ameliorate their hardships, maybe, if for nothing else than the measure of effort required. We are witnessing people, the migrant workers and who not, hardly getting any board and lodging worth the name as they are stranded between their former work stations and their homes. These people are simply not getting enough to eat.

We have boasted that India was now self-sufficient in food production. Our present food grains stocks are around 80 million tonnes —far in excess of the minimum buffer stock requirements, If this is not drawn down now to feed the people who need food desperately, when should we use these.

It appears the question is not availability of food but a proper mechanism for its distribution. For the stranded migrant labourers, or the daily wage earners in the interiors and sell towns, the states’ governments should be able to organise the food distribution. This is not happening. The NGOs should also be involved in the process. The work should be split into smaller manageable modules and food distribution should now be launched more robustly.

There were suggestions that lock down should be spared for a short while and the stranded migrant labourers should be allowed to go home. Special trains should be run to take them to the nearest stations. There are problems associated with that. Moving bodies of people could also mean spreading the infection wider. This is the common experience in times of epidemics.

Besides, people in the home villages of migrant labourers might also stall the move. In many areas, villagers have put up blockades and prevented entry of outsiders, including returning community members. They are forcing those returning home to self quarantine outside village limits.

The central government must assume a more proactive role in this respect and on an emergency basis set up a dedicated cell to monitor the movement and lodging and food for the migrant labourers throughout the country so that these hapless people could at least live their quarantine period —often with family and small children in tow— in minimum human comforts. Suddenly, announcing lock-down is not enough and ignoring these people or letting them over to these states has not so far produced the desired results.

Secondly, since March 22, industry and businesses have fallen silent. Apart from a few essential activities like power generation, everything is frozen in time. For the organised big industries, they will not start humming back into life immediately on withdrawal of the lock down.

They will take time to warm up. Many industries, which are continuous processes, will incur substantial losses on scrapped materials. The disrupted supply chains will also take time to move again. Witness as an example the pharmaceuticals industry. The final tablet that you swallow is the end product of a long line of processing from production of the basic bulk drugs to formulations.

In the metallurgical industries, very little time was available to step down the basic facilities like furnaces or melters. To reignite and resume operations will take considerable time, apart from the losses from defects and damages to key facilities.

That will call for credit flows and finances. The banks have already been under strain and the prolonged suspension of work would inevitably mean many more non-performing loans accounts. The Reserve Bank has already announced some concessions in reckoning of bad loans. But the banks would need fresh funds and the central bank should be in a position to meet the extra funds requirements.

But there are some silver linings as well. The lock down has shown us that employment in India is mostly in the informal sectors. These are in owner driven small units or in self employment. Bulk of such employment is also in services units. So far the thrust of our economic policy has been to formalise the normal sector. There were a kind of vilification campaign on the informal sector as if they were only gaining without paying any taxes.

Contrarily, it is informal nature of the bulk of employment which can be our strength in times of distress. These people who are now unemployed and not earning their living would spring back to life the moment the lock down is withdrawn. They will simple resume their avocation overnight.
(IPA Service)