There are all sorts, of course. Techie Rama Raju of Hyderabad wants the lockdown gone. He cannot take it or fake it anymore. He’s in virtual exasperation. He insists Modi should have spelled out his decision in longhand well in advance. People have to prepare for further troubled days, don’t unload it (lockdown 3) on us “suddenly” is his fervent plea.

A waste of breath? Modi hasn’t spoken his intentions aloud. And nobody knows if Modi has an ear to the ground. The Prime Minister must be perfecting another “address to the nation” with major points couched in vague terms. In homilies millions may not understand because of language and due to a cultural gap. For instance, Modi is Hindu and it’s the ‘diya’ that lights up his life.

The global desire is to open up stalled economies. But the global reality is the coronavirus continues to infect. Covid-19 death toll shows no fall. And India is no exception to the curve. The danger is we’re an affable people. In some places not even lockdown – police and paramilitary – could hold hoi polloi from stepping outdoor. It will take more than a cleft stick to catapult Modi to a better position.

No matter what decision is taken there is bound to be degrees of chaos. People in red zones will try to break into orange and green zones. Similarly, those let loose in green zones might want to breach red zones to be with Covid-19 struck relatives or friends. Mobile telephone lines haven’t been disabled. People are talking.

But assuming that Lockdown 3 is ordered and it takes off seamlessly, does that mean all the problems brought about by Covid-19 and generated by lockdown conditions will vanish in Lockdown 3 on their own? Ha! That is where the Modi government – perhaps several state governments, also – does not have an ear to the ground.

For, beneath the ground is bubbling lava. People struggling to survive pandemic and lockdowns. The symptoms emerged the day Lockdown 1 was declared. Tens of thousands lost jobs. Migrant workers panicked. Thousands were evicted from rented accommodations. Others tried to hold on to money but cash slipped out of their slippery fingers.

The more desperate tried to bolt for “home” but were caught flat-footed. Everywhere the hungry queued up for free food. But there wasn’t enough to feed on. The number of SOS before Mayday was unprecedented. Government welfare measures proved inadequate, said a “rapid survey” in Ahmedabad during Lockdown 1.

On the eve of a likely Lockdown 3, Gujarat, particularly Ahmedabad, sits on an active Covid-19 volcano, largely because of the ‘Namoste Trump’ event in Ahmedabad which saw a collection of 125,000 screaming Gujaratis breaking very norm in the corona quarantine book. Who knows how many of them were coronavirus infected and how many they infected and go on to infect?

Never mind, the larger point is that lockdowns 1 and 2 did not work sufficiently enough. If anything they brought more misery. The IIM (Ahmedabad) “rapid survey” of 500 low-income households assessed the needs and circumstances of these vulnerable groups. Their primary occupations ranged from bus/van/auto drivers, tailors, daily wage workers, plumbers, rickshaw pullers, food stall owners and workers, vegetable sellers, cleaner…

They informed that they never had stability of incomes/wages. They said they wouldn’t be able to make next month’s rents, phone bills, electricity bills and school fees. These are the people who have seen through not one but two lockdowns and may very well have to negotiate another. Trump obviously will not come to help them, but ‘will Modi?’ is an open question.

The findings of the survey are very disturbing and include…

• 52% households had at least one child enrolled in a government school or anganwadi
• 74% households reported not earning regular incomes anymore and most expressed anxiety about future incomes
• Many had taken credit from their employers or neighbours to meet basic food related expenses
• Over 40 % households were facing urgent food and medicine-related problems
• The situation is so dire that even households with just 7-10 days of food left said “others have it much worse”
• Due to the sudden fall in incomes, most households were unable to procure vegetables, milk, washing powder, sanitary pads…
• The statements of the people ranged from “I have only Rs. 500-800 left for managing everything” to “I will lose everything”; from “Due to lack of food and essential items, the stores have increased prices and the family doesn't have enough money to purchase” to “I have no job and have withdrawn all my money from the bank to feed my family of 6 people.”
• 44% of respondents said that their current food supply would last them less than a week. Others reported 1-2 weeks: 19% 2-4 weeks and 12% more than a month. Only 25% said they had “sufficient”

The point is, Gujarat and possibly many other states will be going into yet another lockdown with lakhs of hungry people going hungrier by the day. The welfare measures that the governments – Centre as well as states – have announced haven’t all worked. Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan says the lockdown should go as India does not have the financial resources capacity to support its poor.

From the looks of it, he may be right. Tax revenue has already started falling and will fall further even as expenditure will increase. At the same time, welfare measures would have to increase. Ditto money for welfare. Lockdown 3 and possibly 4 will cost India more and more. Let’s just hope Modi chose right in limiting coronavirus testing and laying all his bets on lockdowns. The Great Oracle will speak May 3. What will it be this Sunday? (IPA Service)