Right now, the situation is not ripe for full scale political activities due to the continuing presence of the coronavirus and the partial lockdown. Bihar may not be up till now, one of the most affected states but the threat is there that the cases will be rising in the coming days. But the elections are nearly five months away and both the BJP and the JD(U) have made kicked up the poll campaign within the parameters of the restrictions and that is how the political campaigns have to be conducted in this unusual time.

The RJD is the major party of the opposition alliance, followed by the Congress. The RJD is still not in a position to put its house in order though Tejaswi Yadav has started meeting the party workers. The district party units have still not been activised and the absence of a charismatic leader like Lalu Yadav is being felt more and more by the party veterans. The RJD has not yet held discussions in its policymaking body about the poll strategy and as a result, the base level workers have no clue about who will be the allies. Rather, BJP and the CM have been wooing some of the old allies of RJD and there are reports that some of them may come to some understanding with NDA if the RJD led opposition does not emerge early as a strong contender.

The Congress position in the state is no better. The party has ceased to be pro active centrally due to void in the leadership. Sonia Gandhi is acting as the president but Rahul Gandhi has become active and the signs are there that he is finally deciding the issues in the states. There is total chaos in the decision making process and this has led to fissures in the state of Rajasthan where the ruling party is facing dissidence on the eve of the polling to the Rajya Sabha. The Rajasthan Congress MLAs have been shifted to the resort to protect themselves from being tapped by the BJP.

BJP is flush with funds and the Party is in the habit of seducing the MLAs by offering huge bribes. This has been a part of the Indian politics for long and earlier the Congress used to do this when the party coffers were full. Now, the party is in financial crunch and it is not in a position to offer enough facilities to its ambitious legislators. The BJP is taking full advantage of that by making use of its huge available funds. The Indian industrialists have no confidence in Congress as an upcoming ruling party and despite their fear of the BJP and the PMO, they are more helpful to BJP in funding. They have to carry on business and survive and so they will side with those who can help.

The Congress leadership will never be able to get the trust of Indian industry unless the Party can achieve success in forging a united front of anti-BJP parties which can really challenge the BJP led NDA in the elections, mainly in the coming Lok Sabha poll. Still there are four years left for 2024 Lok Sabha poll but in politics, situation changes very fast and the Congress as also the other opposition parties, are failing to create that confidence in the people that they are in a position to take on the ruling party in terms of policies and future performance

That is why despite all failures, starting with demonetisation, Ill planned GST and now unplanned lockdown in the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going unscathed. He has no competitor. Rahul Gandhi's principles talk with the top intellectuals and experts do not mean much in the hard ground of political battles. The ultimate decider is organisation and correct strategy. In both these, the Congress is failing and that has made the opposition directionless.

Still, the Congress and the opposition can stage a comeback in the national politics next year and beyond if with farsight, the RJD, the Congress as also the other small allies stitch a programme based political front to challenge NDA in the state of Bihar. This front has to work out understanding with the Left also, especially the CPI, CPI(M) and the CPI(ML) for a strong alliance since the left base in Bihar is widespread and the unity of all these parties will be very helpful for the front to fight effectively the NDA led by BJP and JD(U).

If the opposition can do well in Bihar in November poll, and unseat Nitish, that will be a big achievement for the opposition and the Congress in the present suppressed situation, and that will help in catalysing the process in favour of state assembly elections scheduled for 2021.If the Opposition does badly in Bihar, the BJP and NDA will be energised and there will be positive impact for the BJP in the states poll in May 2921.

Both the Congress and the RJD have to seriously think about the strategy to bring the anti-BJP forces under one banner before the November poll. If the front can emerge with credibility and pro people programme, that will give new enthusiasm to the anti-NDA supporters in Bihar. The mass sentiment in the country, as well as Bihar, is not favourable to BJP but the alternative is not emerging as viable enough. Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi have to jointly take that task and make it happen. That is the only way now to rejuvenate the national opposition in the country. (IPA Service)