It will work at two levels. Immediately, it can impact the UPA's government's stability. At another level, it can lead to a political confrontation between the ruling Congress and its regional allies and supporters.

The UPA2 is not as stable as most of us think. The rumblings in any of the major provincial parties in UP, West Bengal or Tamil Nadu can give sleepless nights for the UPA managers during the budget session. That is why Pranab Mukherjee insists the government should avert any direct showdown on the floor of the House on delicate issues. Technically, the UPA's is still a minority government with all its participating parties adding up to only 264 MPs. This is less by eight for a majority at 272. Thus the Manmohan Singh government is surviving on the support of at least eight of the 50 MPs belonging to the 'outside' parties like SP (22), Bahujan Samaj Party (21), RJD (4) and JD(S) (3).

Problem comes when issues of common interest comes up in House. It can logically reduce the government to a minority. Then there is the unpredictable Mamata Banerjee (19 MPs) whose decisions will be guided solely by her own local obsessions. The Congress managers are well aware of this seemingly stable but actually precarious existence. This is also the reason why the Congress is so keen on keeping Karunanidhi (18 MPs), NCP (9) and the mercurial Mamata in good humour. As additional insurance, the party has been careful not to displease Mulayam Singh Yadav. By the same logic, it is fairly certain that Sonia Gandhi is not going to do anything to sour the party's ties with the DMK despite all speculations over her handshake with Jayalalithaa.

If Mamata behaves so recalcitrant, and the PM tolerates the way she runs roughshod over the railways, it is only due to this wobbly state of the UPA government. So in case she acts funny, the party managers will have to rely on Mulayam or Mayawati, the two irreconcilable contenders in UP politics. The same realism has made Pranab Mukherjee put all reform-related bills on hold. Reform pushers and foreign lobbies had put renewed pressures on him to rush with the Pension Fund Authority Bill and banking and insurance bills. Both these are expected to release huge funds for private business. However, Mukherjee could not take any bet on Trinamul and DMK which have fairly strong trade unions under them. Even if they give the nod, they could later turn hostile under pressure. And the government will have to suffer humiliation.

Then there is the heavy baggage of PM's nuclear deal. The most crucial one is a specific bill to exempt the US firms from liabilities for paying compensation to the victims of nuclear accidents in their plants in India. PM is committed to push it through but the allies and sections of Congress leaders are worried about the hostile public reaction on such a humanitarian issue. The bill could fall flat in case Mamata or Karunanidhi develops cold feet and SP and BSP decide to stay with the opposition. Murli Deora's pitch for raising petroleum and gas prices is the latest instance. The UPA government's position is so fragile that it cannot any more do so through a midnight announcement. Instead, it is being forced to conduct elaborate pre-decision consultations with Mamata, DMK and NCP.

Now about the far-reaching implications. It looks that Rahul Gandhi's initial baby steps towards a revival of the Congress in 'lost' states like UP, Bihar, and possibly Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, have the high command's approval. If it is indeed so, a confrontation with the present UPA supporters will become unavoidable. The Congress had verily yielded space in this vast region following the Mandir-Mandal conflict. Since then this is the first time that the party is making a determined bid to restore the lost land. Mulayam had the first shock when the Congress broke the nuclear deal promise of a united fight against Mayawati. Instead, the Congress tried to poach into its preserved constituency and came out well in UP elections.

This time, the Congress has displayed greater determination to rob the Samajwadis of their electorally crucial minority cake. Digvijay Singh's recent visit to Azamgarh is part of a new Congress dialogue with the minorities. Also, to Mulayam's chagrin, the recent elections have shown that SP is going to be a bigger loser than Mayawati in the event of a shift of loyalty by the minorities. In coalitions, political poaching, individual or territorial, is the most serious offence. Indian coalitions are founded not on policies and programmes but on the compulsions of local antagonism and electoral self-interests. If Rahul really goes ahead with his dogged fight for the Muslim constituency, for Mulayam the Congress will become as bitter a foe as Mayawati.

Certainly, this aspect has greatly influenced the SP's decision to dump the Amar Singh line of growth through glam and return to the time-tested 'M-Y+' (Muslim-Yadav plus extra support). Now Mulayam will have to be more aggressively anti-Congress both in Delhi and UP. The Rahul effect is equally sharp in Bihar where the Lalu-Paswan combine fears a further minority exodus towards the young Congress leader. If this happens, it will make the old Janata splinters more anti-Congress. There is already talk of an upper caste shift, however hazy it may be, from the NDA to the Congress in Bihar.

Also, any serious move by the Congress to recover its lost ground in old Janata Dal strongholds will mean a stiff competition with the outside supporters of the UPA like SP, RJD, LJP and the JD(S) in Karnataka for political space. Such bitter tussles on home turf will manifest itself in their attitude towards the UPA government at the Centre. This will also be the beginning of the revival of the old-style anti-Congressism and a quiet return to the Congress party's Pachmarhi thesis of go-it-alone in elections. One has to wait to see whether the Congress leadership will settle for such a game-changing policy shift when things remain still fragile at the Centre. (IPA Service)