Unlike the near-fatal blow suffered by the AIADMK because of Puratchi Thalaivi’s death, the DMK has succeeded in surviving M. Karunanidhi’s departure because of the presence at the party’s helm of M.K. Stalin. The latter has also managed to sideline his brother, M.K. Alagiri who appears to have faded away from the state’s political scene. “I am a forgotten man”, he said ruefully in the wake of his expulsion from the party. It is entirely possible, therefore, that the DMK, in combination with the Congress, will win in Tamil Nadu, burying the BJP’s fond dream of securing a foothold in the state with the AIADMK’s or, perhaps, film star Rajnikanth’s help.

The same can be said of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, where chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan is seemingly firmly ensconced despite the tremors caused by the so-called gold scam. It is customary for the two rivals – the LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) – to come out on top in alternate elections. But the Vijayan government’s reasonably satisfactory tackling of the coronavirus outbreak is likely to tilt the scales in its favour for the second time in a row.

The Congress, therefore, will have to cool its heels for another five years in Kerala while taking solace from a possible second successive victory in Puducherry, the third southern state to go to the polls next year. Apart from Puducherry, the Congress can look forward to yet another success in Punjab where Amrinder Singh’s sway does not seem to have faced any major challenge from the Akali Dal-BJP combine if only because the ageing Akali warhorse, the 92-year-old Parkash Singh Badal, is beyond his prime and his son, Sukhbir, is yet to measure up to the Congress leader’s stature.

Assam is the other state where the Congress can expect to gain by securing some mileage from the discontent caused by the National Register of Citizens (NRC) exercise. The rift it has caused between the ruling BJP-Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) duo and the All Assam Students Union (AASU) should help the Congress. If the AASU does keep its threat of forming a new party, it is bound to cause sleepless nights to the state’s present rulers. The AASU, it has to be remembered, was a formidable force during the anti-foreigners agitation in Assam in the 1979-85 period and still retains considerable clout. Its grouse this time is that the Citizenship Act favoured by the BJP will lead to an influx of Bangladeshi Hindu refugees into Assam, thereby upsetting the latter’s demographic profile.

In the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP with 29.5 per cent of the votes, and its two allies, the AGP (8.1 per cent) and the Bodoland People’s Party (3.9 per cent), raced ahead of the Congress with its 31 per cent. In last year’s parliamentary polls, however, the Congress nearly closed the gap with the BJP by securing 35.3 per cent against the BJP’s 36.1 while the AGP and the Bodoland party together won 10.7 per cent. However, if there is an understanding between the Congress and Badriuddin Tyabji’s All India United Democratic Front, as former chief minister Tarun Gogoi has hinted for opposing “communal forces”, the BJP-led alliance can be in trouble.

Assam, therefore, is an open case. But what about Bihar and West Bengal? In Bihar, Nitish Kumar is not the most popular of politicians these days because of the sorry condition of hospitals dealing with coronavirus patients. It is because of the outbreak that his alliance partner, the Lok Janashakti Party’s (LJP) Chirag Paswan wants the elections to be held later. Since he is echoing the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) Tejasvi Yadav in making this demand, observers have seen a link between the LJP and the RJD, much to the ruling Janata Dal (United)’s discomfort. But, if Parkash Singh Badal is too old to pose a challenge to the Congress in Punjab, Tejasvi Yadav is too young – he is 31 - to do the same to Nitish Kumar. But there is little doubt that together with the Congress, the RJD can give the Janata Dal (United) a run for its money.

In West Bengal, the strong challenge which the Trinamool Congress faces from the BJP has become stronger because of the allegations of corruption in the disbursement of cyclone relief funds by the ruling party apparatchiki. As it is, the Trinamool operatives have long been accused of the “cut money” phenomenon involving extorting “commissions” for facilitating real estate deals. Now, the scandal over cyclone relief has further dented the state government’s and chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s image, broadening the smile on the BJP’s face. (IPA Service)