And once some of them are released, they cannot be stopped from airing their views as Farooq Abdullah, Jammu and Kashmir’s former chief minister, has done on being freed after a year under house arrest. He is the first prominent person to have given an idea of what the Kashmiris are feeling.

Given his claim about the discontent in the valley over the abrogation of Article 370, it is unlikely that the government will be in a hurry to relax some of the security measures and pave the way for elections. But the release of a statement by five mainstream parties including the two major outfits - the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Front (PDP) – calling for the restoration of Kashmir’s special constitutional status suggests that the issue is coming to the forefront all over again.

The appointment of a new Lt. Governor – the third in a year – and the withdrawal of 10,000 security personnel from Kashmir have hinted at the possibility of advancing towards the holding of elections. It is also possible that the reactions, mainly in the US, about the situation in the Union territory have made the government aware of the counterproductive nature of persisting with the restrictions on normal life, such as on the Internet services except in selected areas.

The chances of a Joe Biden-Kamala Harris dispensation being less indulgent than the Trump White House towards India’s handling of the Kashmir issue must have also been considered by New Delhi. As it is, a Congressional group comprising both Republicans and Democrats has expressed concern over Kashmir, suggesting that not all Republicans are with Trump in adopting a low-key posture on the subject.

If the Democrats win, it is not only Kamala Harris who can rub the Indian government the wrong way with her views on Kashmir, but also the far more forthright Bernie Sanders who is likely to be even more blunt. Moreover, any inordinate delay in the holding of elections and the continuing detention of party leaders like former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti will also be grist to the mills of the Democrats who are displeased about the events in Kashmir.

If, on top of all this, Farooq Abdullah and others speak out about the unhappiness of the ordinary people, then the centre will have a lot of explaining to do both at home and abroad. The report that more and more locals have been joining the ranks of the militants has confirmed the distress felt by the people over the implementation of what Farooq Abdullah said was the BJP’s agenda relating to Article 370 and not the nation’s.

So, apart from the difficulties of pursuing hardline policies in a democracy, the ruling party at the centre may be also realizing that acting in accordance with the party line in one region may bolster its organizational and political base in the rest of the country, but face rejection in the affected area.

Even if the BJP succeeded in securing the support of enough parties in parliament to push through its decision to snuff out Kashmir’s special status, any sign that the move hasn’t found acceptance in the state for which it is meant cannot but induce second thoughts in some of the supporting parties.

Among them is the Congress, which is said to be wary about endorsing the statement of Farooq Abdullah and others on the grounds that the matter is before the Supreme Court. But the possibility of the National Conference, the PDP and other parties consolidating their positions in the valley at the expense of the parties of the mainland can be worrisome for the latter.

A major fallout of the removal of Article 370 from the statute book is the coming together of the two earlier rivals, the National Conference and the PDP. It goes without saying that the two together will pose a formidable challenge to all the other parties in the valley.

As a result, the BJP’s efforts to field some of the lesser players in the electoral fray like the Apni Party of a former PDP member, Altaf Bukhari, may come to naught. The BJP is probably also trying to tweak the electoral rolls via the delimitation process. But if the tide of popular sentiment turns decisively towards the National Conference and the PDP, it will not be easy to negate it.

What can bother the BJP all the more is that the world will be watching the election trends and outcome. Any indication that its move of August 5, 2019, alienated the Kashmiris will be politically damaging at home and diplomatically embarrassing abroad. (IPA Service)