“The irony of the history is that the dogmatist Saudi Islamism discovers a strange identity with the ultra-anti Muslim regime in New Delhi”, instantly reacted a senior professor of humanities in a leading university of Punjab in an email message to this correspondent. Saudi overlords are openly aggrieved over Pakistan’s inexplicable silence towards atrocities of Chinese rulers on the Turkic-speaking Uighurs, a Sunni Muslim minority, in China's nor Saudi royals are not convinced about Islamabad’s diplomatic imperatives.

South Asian diplomats and western diplomatic experts specialising in the south eastern and southern Asian diplomacy are worried and puzzled over the increasing friendly and supportive nature of Saudi power towards India under the Crown Prince MBS whose focus is on diversification of Saudi’s heavily oil-dependent economy and India comes as a valuable partner in the region.

Now Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth-largest trade partner - next to China, the USA and Japan. India imports around 18 per cent of its crude oil requirement from Saudi Arabia which is a major source of LPG too for India. With India stopping oil imports from Iran due to the threat of sanctions by the USA, rulers in Riyadh wasted no time in extending olive branch to New Delhi. Political and ideological (read religious) rationale gives in to petro-dollar opportunism.

Time was when Saudi oil and dollars kept Pakistan’s economy afloat, pooh-poohing sanctions following the nuclear tests. Saudi Arabia supplied oil on deferred payments to Pakistan whenever it ran into economic malaise. Riyadh’s funding of madrasas once led to their growth and spread which in turn bucked up religious extremism. But things are in flux and at times against the interests of Islamabad.

Pakistan lobbied with the Organisation of Islamic Conference for criticising the Indian move of revoking Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir but statements by Saudi Arabia and the UAE were shocking to Pakistan. Pak diplomats tried their best to rouse the sentiments among the Islamic countries, but the response was lukewarm Only Turkey and Malaysia publicly criticised India.

Furthermore, the China factor comes to the fore.. Ever since the military dictatorship of General Ayyub Khan was in ascendancy, Pakistan and China remained “all-weather allies” and “iron brothers” for two reasons. First, China’s pragmatic proximity to Pakistan to counter the newly growing friendship between India and the erstwhile Soviet Union. Second, Washington’s approval of expanding ‘unfriendliness between China and the Soviet Union for strategic and diplomatic reasons. China has been supporting Pakistan on the Kashmir issue at the United Nations Security Council. Moreover, China emerged as Pakistan’s biggest benefactor through its funding of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Originally valued at $ 46 billion, Beijing’s commitment to Islamabad is upped to $ 62 billion.

But Saudi Arabia has no differences with Pakistan on CPEC. Actually, Saudi Arabia too invested in CPEC projects, to the tune of $10 billion. Even then Islamabad is more interested in Beijing for securing both diplomatic and economic support. Pakistani leaders’ visits to China have played an important role in further strengthening the Pakistan-China All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership.

But cashing in on the cleavage in the Islamic solidarity, India favours and supports the Arab world and has strengthened the diplomatic levers through high-level visits and open opportunities for investment and business. India has been closely watching the developments between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia but nothing was stated publicly. Moreover, Narendra Modi-led government of National Democratic Alliance counts on Saudi’s silence pertaining to the issues of Jammu and Kashmir and the CAA-NRC.

According to a leading foreign policy expert, the approach of Saudi Arabia towards Pakistan largely revolved around three key components in the present geopolitical context. The first was the military power and nuclear capabilities of Pakistan which addresses the strategic requirements for Saudi Arabia. The second was the economic limitations of Pakistan which can only be addressed by countries like Saudi Arabia since in the recent past Western powers have distanced themselves from Pakistan. The third was the factor of the Islamic identity of Pakistan which completely caters to the idea of working in partnership for the larger welfare of Muslim ummah which remains crucial for Saudi Arabia in the present regional dynamics.

But it may be a transient phenomenon as weakening of Islamic solidarity cannot be taken for granted. For the time being Narendra Modi is one up in the nebulous diplomacy of the Middle Eastern arena. (IPA Service)