Although the protests had to take a break due to the virus, CAA still remains a crucial factor in state politics. CAA is a national issue but in Assam, it is very much a local factor too. The state is already seeing new regional political formations based on the anti-CAA factor.

Not only this, new alliances are forming and some are in the cards. Most significant is the Congress-AIUDF alliance. Dubri Lok Sabha MP Baduruddin Ajmal led AIUDF is often known as a party representing the interests of Bengali Muslim migrants of the state. Not to forget that it was Congress which once used to brand Baddruddin’s party as a communal one. Importantly, the grand old party also had hesitated to stitch an alliance back in 2016 assembly polls and in last year’s Lok Sabha elections.

The reason for Congress' hesitation earlier was due to the fact that the indigenous Assamese plus the tribal community, mostly Hindus, generally see AIUDF as a party that doesn't represent their interests. So, what changed in between?

Anti-CAA views have brought Congress and AIUDF closer. Also, both Congress and AIDUF appeal to the same Muslim votebank — 34 per cent of the state population. Their past rivalry was due to this same vote bank. But, over the last two-three years, things started to change. Muslims started to shift towards Congress by deserting AIUDF — which has considerably weakened in these years.

During last year’s Lok Sabha polls, AIUDF managed to win only 1 seat — down from 3 it got in 2014 polls. So, AIUDF also has very limited options — except opting for an alliance with the Congress. The strategy of Congress is not to split the Muslim vote bank while at the same time trying to bring in the indigenous population towards its side on the basis of anti-CAA platform. Actually, the grand old party by opting for an alliance with its once rival AIUDF has also confirmed its inability to defeat BJP on its own.

The Congress is also looking for the Left parties to broaden the anti-BJP platform. Left parties still do wield influences in some pockets. Not only this, the grand old party is also looking for alliances with the new regional political parties. One significant among these new regional parties is the Anchalik Gana Morcha formed by independent Rajya Sabha MP and veteran journalist Ajit Bhuyan — who was elected this year to the Rajya Sabha with the joint support of Congress and AIUDF. As of now there is no clarification but it would be no surprise if Bhuyan’s regional front becomes the part of the Congress led grand anti-BJP front during the elections.

Also, All Assam Students’ Union (AASU), which is one of the major bodies that protested against CAA in Assam, is expected to form a new regional party. It is to be mentioned that Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), state’s major regional party was formed by members of AASU to fight the immediate elections held after signing of the Assam Accord in 1985. Currently, AGP is a part of the BJP led government in the state led by chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal but the party no longer enjoys the political clout it once enjoyed in the state. Already, the Krishak Mukkti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) had announced that it is forming a new political party and will fight elections with its chief Akhil Gogoi, who is currently in jail, as the chief minister's face of the state. Congress has even urged this political front to join its anti-BJP front.

The problem is that all these new regional political fronts are based on the same agenda — anti-CAA issue. There is less probability that all the three parties would be successful at the same time fighting on the same issue. If they come together under the Congress umbrella, then this combination will obviously prevent the division of the anti-CAA votes. However, there are contradictions as the AIUDF stand on the NRC final list published last year is contradictory.

The list, which left out 19 lakh people living in the state, was rejected by BJP, Congress, AASU and all other main Assamese organisations. Because they felt that the list includes many illegal immigrantsand at the same time leaves out many members from the indigenous communities. But, AIUDF stands opposite and supports the NRC final list — which is also a crucial issue like CAA.

The grand anti-BJP alliance mainly focuses on the anti-CAA factor, which is its major strength — as it has become a thorn for BJP. However, at the same time it may turn out its weakest point in the elections. If there is polarisation of all anti-BJP votes in favour of the alliance, then there will also be a counter polarisation in favour of BJP — because of the AIUDF factor. Both the indigenous Assamese plus the tribals, who by religion are mostly Hindus, are already worried of their decreasing population while there is a rise of Muslim population, mostly Bengali Muslims.

The indigenous population is worried at the rising population of Bengalis, both Muslims and Hindus. It is not that they are blindly opposed to every Bengali. Through the Assam Accord, they have accepted the Bengalis settling in Assam before March 21, 1971. But, unfortunately illegal immigration to the state from Bangladesh didn’t stop then. On the other hand, the pro-CAA Bengali Hindus, who form the 50 per cent population of the Barak valley, are strongly supporting the BJP — as they have no other major political options. Barak valley amounts to 15 assembly constituencies.

Not to forget that BJP too is working to woo the indigenous communities through Asomiya sentiments after the CAA fiasco. Recently, a chunk of anti-CAA artists have joined the saffron party while another chunk has joined the Congress. It is almost certain that BJP will go in alliance with AGP. However, Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which is also an alliance partner in the state government, has opted for silence as of now regarding fighting polls with BJP. The party is not happy with BJP for deferment of the election of Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) due to Covid-19. The council was under BPF’s rule and is now administered by the Governor.

The coming together of anti-CAA political fronts will definitely no doubt pose a challenge to the BJP but at the same time one should not forget that elections are not fought on only one factor. Importantly, during the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP led NDA won by bringing indigenous Assamese and tribals plus the Hindu Bengalis on one board — despite BJP promising to bring back the Citizenship Amendment Bill if voted back to power. It remains to be seen whether the Congress led grand anti-BJP alliance will be able to dent this strong social alliance of BJP just only on the basis of anti-CAA sentiments. (IPA Service)