The corona virus disease has been spreading faster than ever before. The morning bulletin of the Union Health Ministry on August 31 shows that the number of COVID-19 patients is around 3.6 million with around 79,000 daily increases, and around 1,000 daily deaths. The figures may double in the month of September. The recovery rate stood at 76.6 per cent, which is a matter of great concern, because we neither have required number of medical professionals, nor the essential facilities in our hospitals.

India has already lost about 64,000 lives and government is spreading the message that we are far better than other countries just to cover up the horrible conditions in our hospitals. Around 87,000 healthcare workers have been infected and 573 died due to lack of facilities and care in our hospitals. It must also be noted that India took 213 days to cross 3.5 million cases with addition of about half a million cases in the last week.

The death and infections are creating havoc in five most important states – Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh. These states have also reported the highest number of fresh cases in the last 24 hours, with highest number of deaths. The states of the country have been told that lockdowns can’t be imposed outside containment zones, and has also allowed metro services to resume from September 7. Social, political, academic, sports, religious and other gatherings will be allowed with a limit of 100 people from September 21. Unlock-4 will be in effect till September 30 during which only schools, colleges, swimming pools, and indoor theatres will remain close. All these indicate that number of infections and death are going to sharply increase without a corresponding increase is hospital beds, doctors, nurses, healthcare workers, medicines, and hospital implements including oxygen cylinders and ventilators.

We have landed into this tragic situation in which anyone getting infected with the disease is paying a heavy price. Getting a bed for serious patient has become a tough task. To get a bed in time, people are either giving bribes or approaching bigwigs for a favour. General public do not have access to high officials, ministers, or influential persons. They do not have sufficient money either to give bribes. Their source of income have dried up due to lockdown. They have lost their jobs and consumed all the extra money they had in the last five months.

Many of them already resorted to debts from private lenders, since the door of banks are closed for them. The people just above the poverty line has slid into poverty, but are not getting government’s help because they do not have documents for their poverty. Individual indebtedness and a situation of hunger seem to be all pervading. Nutrition deficiency in great number of people is brewing another health crisis, apart from the crisis facing the non-COVID-19 patients.

Indebtedness of individual, business, industry, or even government is going to adversely affect their overall financial situation. Banks are now behaving like private lenders, though they were nationalized to bring common people out of their clutches. It’s a sorry state of affair that the banks today are trying to exploit common customers in every possible way, while indulging freely in giving bad loans to their favourites. The present banking crisis is its proof. When Banks were unwilling to give loans to business and industry, the central government announced its guarantee schemes for loans. However, it is a fact that banks are giving loans only to those who are considered still viable.

Millions of MSMEs and small business are not being provided loans. Interest on loans is also working as deterrent for many of them. Market position is very bad. There is a crisis of demand and supply. There is little business, and little earning. They will not be in a position to pay even EMIs, and therefore, avoiding such loans. Who have already taken loan will face the problem when moratorium announced by RBI will end. Most of them are sure to become defaulter, because they would not be in a position to repay their debts. A new banking crisis may begin this month.

We have already seen how the revival package of the government of India failed to revive the economy. The latest assessment says that Indian economy is most likely to contract by 18.3 per cent in the June quarter, 8.1 per cent in the quarter ending in September, and one per cent in the quarter ending in December. This has dashed all hopes of an economic recovery this year, though the situation will be improving after October.

Since the restriction on transport, both rail and road, will be continuing in Unlock-4, there is a little chance of restoration of disrupted supply chain. Demand crisis is also not going to mitigate due to lack of money in people’s hand. Lockdown restrictions in containment zones only may improve the supply chain but will not be of great help, unless demand position improves. Even the government will be not in a position to do much because of its own indebtedness and financial crisis. Government revenue has dwindled. GST collection had registered a 40 per cent fall in June quarter.

In this overall scenario, the month of September will be crucial. The disease, death, debt, and hunger will be haunting the people and the government. Unless government improves its hospital facilities and devise ways and means to put money into the hands of people, the situation cannot be drastically changed, despite increase in agricultural income from new crops. (IPA Service)