Although, according to the political circles, ruling BJP wants extension of more 6 months of governor rule in TTAADC. However, its ally Indigenous People’s Party of Tripura (IPFT) and both the opposition parties — CPM and Congress — want the polls to be held by this year. But, the way BJP is involved in rigorous political activity in the hills, IPFT, CPM and other parties feel that TTAADC polls may be held this year — most probably after the Durga Puja.

TTAADC polls are very significant. The strength of the body is 30 — 2 are nominated members. The area of the body covers two-third of the state. Since 2005, CPM led Left Front has been sweeping the elections by winning all the 28 seats of the body. However, many things have drastically changed in state politics after BJP in alliance with IPFT came to power for the first time in 2018 by dethroning the juggernaut CPI(M) in the state.

The ground situation in hill Tripura although isn’t clear much — as it is difficult to say which party will have the last laugh. The tribal areas were known as citadels of CPI(M), which ruled the state for a longtime banking on the strong support it got from these areas. In 2018, when the CPI(M) was defeated, it won 16 seats — out of which only 2 are ST seats. In the state, there are 20 ST seats and in the last decades, CPI(M) used to win a large chunk of these seats. The point is that the decrease in CPI(M)’s support in the tribal areas, largely contributed to the fall of the Red Wall in the state in 2018.

The party that benefitted the most from CPI(M)s fall in the tribal areas, is IPFT led by NC Debbarma, who is also the revenue and fisheries minister in the Biplab Deb led BJP government. Not to forget, it was IPFT which helped BJP to defeat the Left Front. The tribal party has been demanding for a separate Twipraland, a completely unreasonable demand that also has the shades of separatism. IPFT lured the young tribal voters during the 2018 assembly elections and even won 8 out of 9 contested seats.

The party itself has been accused of playing with the sentiments of tribal minds, particularly with young tribals, with a nonsensical demand and also enjoying the fruits of power along with BJP, which is completely opposed to the demand. Not only BJP, other prominent parties starting from CPI(M) to Congress and even Indigenous Tribal Party of Tripura (INPT) — a prominent tribal regional party, although now has almost lost the support it once enjoyed — are all opposed to IPFT’s separatist agenda.

Despite this, IPFT has been using the demand of Twipraland in all its meetings and rallies as its top priority. The party still commands its influence over the young tribal voters. But, IPFT has been facing strong challenges from its ally BJP, which has been trying too hard to penetrate deep into all the corners of the hilly areas. Both the parties have been involved in a battle of supremacy — which often leads to clashes between supporters of both the allies. BJP, despite being the ruling party of the state, hasn’t yet succeeded in the tribal areas the way it got success in the plain areas. The saffron party itself is divided regarding alliance with the IPFT in the ADC polls. A section worries that without the support of the tribal party, BJP may not perform well. IPFT too is divided — as one section wants to fight elections with BJP. Although, it is expected that both the parties would fight separately.

The reason that a section of both BJP and IPFT wants to fight polls together is due to growing influence of Pradyot Kishore Barman, who belongs to the royal family of the state. Importantly, the royal family still has its own influence among the tribals. Pradyot is already working to create a new political front comprising INPT plus some small tribal parties. Notably, he has been receiving good responses from the people of the tribal areas.

Amid all these, CPI(M) too still remains a force in the tribal areas. It has activated the Gana Mukti Parishad (GMP), the tribal organisation riding on which CPI(M) once dominated all over the hilly areas. Former state minister and ex-Lok Sabha MP Jitendra Chaudhury, seen as CPI(M)’s tribal face, has been given the responsibility to look after the party activities for ADC polls and to regain the lost base. CPI(M) has been a little bit successful to evoke a good response giving some kind of a ray of hope to the party leadership.

The only party lagging behind is the Congress — which according to some sources is trying hard to do some kind of arrangements with the new political party of Pradyot, who was the state president of the Congress before leaving the party over differences on the issue of NRC.

The battle lines are already drawn and this time the hill Tripura is going to witness a different political battle — where it is expected that BJP, IPFT, CPI(M) and Pradyot’s new party will fight with each other. As usual, Congress remains confused. (IPA Service)