The Chinese first made an attempt at “changing the status quo on ground” on May 5. It goes to the credit of Lt.-Gen. Harinder Singh who was then the commander of the Leh-based 14 Corps that he could read the situation quickly and started mobilizing troops – infantry, artillery, tanks and missiles, with the full backing of the political leadership in Delhi. The air force was also alerted and made battle-ready. The addition of five Rafale combat aircraft was a force multiplier for the IAF.

After India occupied as many as twenty strategic hilltops during the night of August 29-30, and China prepared to dislodge the Indians from the hilltops, Indian tank regiments quickly moved forward to the border. The South China Morning Post reported on September 26 that in an article published in Li Jian, a retired Chinese lieutenant-general has feared that if it wants the Indian army may cross over into Chinese territory.

Cautioning the PLA, Wang Hongguang said while India admitted to have mobilized fifty thousand troops in the (Ladakh) border, it had actually tripled its strength. Another one hundred thousand Indian troops were waiting just 30 kms away from the Line of Actual Control and could “easily cross into China in a few hours.” This warning came just a couple of days after the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times had referred to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s statement that the Indian army had been told to open fire if the Chinese advanced threateningly. The Global Times warned that “Indian troops could fire only once”, implying that they would not get the chance to fire the second time.

Air Chief Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria has summed up the situation in eastern Ladakh as “an uneasy, no war-no peace status”. The Chinese are in no mood to restore status quo ante May 5. China believes that the way India has prepared itself militarily to frustrate any fresh violation of the LAC by the Chinese anywhere in the Sino-Indian border from Uttarakhand in the east to Arunachal in the west, in close consultation with Washington.

Beijing is, therefore, keeping a keen watch on the US presidential election scheduled for November 3. Donald Trump is vehemently anti-Chinese and has supported India from the very beginning of the current standoff, while his rival Joe Biden’s attitude on Sino-American relationship or US position on Sino-Indian confrontation is not known. If Trump wins, the old US policy will continue. But if Biden wins, what then? Will there be a policy change in Washington?

During the Second World War, there used to be a joke. “Name the Russian general who defeated both Napoleon and Hitler.” The answer was “General Winter.” The next five months, from October to February will be a test of endurance for both the Indian and Chinese Armies, cooped up in their tents and bunkers at altitudes of fourteen to eighteen thousand feet in minus 40 degree Celsius as to which one will better fight General Winter and come out with flying colours. As the snow starts melting by February, it will be clear how long the uneasy “no war-no peace” period will last.

China has several disadvantages. First and foremost, its territorial claims on about two dozen neighbouring countries and its crude muscle-flexing have only made it untrustworthy. It is feared, not trusted. Second, if the US-India-Japan-Australia ‘’Quad’’ crystallizes further, it will be a challenge to Chinese supremacy in the Indian Ocean. Third, covid-19 pandemic has hit the economy of every country including China badly. China’s may be an eleven trillion dollar economy, but it had also to bear the brunt of the pandemic. If Beijing continues to increase its military budget ceaselessly with a view to world domination, despite the damage inflicted by covid on its economy, it may face a situation similar to that faced by the now defunct Soviet Union in its desperate arms race with the US after the Second World War.

Last but not the least, even China cannot totally ignore the public mood. Information trickling out of the bamboo curtain indicates that public discontent is coming out more and more openly in the social media. If the Chinese army is successfully thwarted and checkmated by the Indian army, then Xi Jinping may have to face a challenge within his own party, the CPC. Dictatorships give rise to endless palace intrigues and “elimination” of opponents, real or imaged..Those familiar with the history of Soviet Union under Stalin and China under Mao Zedong know it too well.

China wants to occupy Ladakh because it wants to bring under its control the entire area from Ladakh to Karakoram Pass right up to where the CPEC will pass. Will Xi Jinping step back and stop his military adventurism against India? Or will he do just the opposite and be bent on grabbing more Indian land inflicting a military defeat on India? We will know after February. But by igniting a war with India China may find itself further isolated in the international arena with all its political and economic consequences. One thing is for sure. This time China will fail to defeat India, firm in its resolve to protect its territorial integrity and national sovereignty. The world has changed a lot in six decades since 1962. (IPA Service)