This is bound to disappoint Bangladeshis who have shown remarkable restraint over the emotive water sharing issue. As for the Rohingyas, even a cursory request from India to the visiting Burmese officials to expedite the return from Bangladesh of the stranded Rohingyas would have helped. As for the water sharing issue, India’s stock response ‘the matter would be resolved through negotiations’ carries little conviction, especially after China’s concrete offer.

It is not as though India has not worked hard over the years to improve and consolidate good bilateral ties with Bangladesh. Even during the Corona pandemic, Delhi has been taking steps to speed up the ongoing infra related major projects in Bangladesh. In 2017, an LOC of $4.5 billion was announced for Bangladesh on highly favourable terms, involving Indian assistance for 17 projects. In addition, the Ambanis and the Adanis are about to spend $ 5.5 billion to build two power plants targeting a daily production of 4600 megawatts. Following the gradual implementation of transit rights for India and the introduction of inland water transport services, Bangladesh currently earns a substantial amount by way of levies and fees. Its own infrastructure sector has been strengthened, new permanent assets like warehouses/depots and other facilities have been created , not to mention the creation of new jobs.

India, too has gained immensely. Average travel time by road between Kolkata and Agartala has been reduced from the earlier 60 hours to around 36 hours now, not to mention the savings in terms of fuel costs. Bangladesh can now access North India, Nepal and Bhutan seamlessly as trucks and other vehicles can move cargo/tourists through Indian territory thanks to the provisions of the BBIN connectivity scheme .It is only in India, Nepal and Bangladesh that some of the objectives of Delhi’s ambitious LookEast initiative have been partially achieved and a firm foundation laid for future economic/industrial co-operation.

Those phenomenon of growth/development between the two countries acts as India’s most dependable asset in Bangladesh. The progress achieved so far has been slow at times, but the outcome has been of lasting importance. The economic benefits of the infra projects have been dramatic. Even the traditionally india-hating Islamic extremist lobby, busy as ever, cannot deny the importance of good relations with India, nor dispute its role as a growth facilitator for Bangladesh. Dhaka-based entrepreneurs now increasingly access Indian ports like Vizag and Chennai. Trade and industry circles there are considering the use of India’s National water way no 1, linking Haldia with Varanasi, targeting the big north Indian economic heartland.

India is entitled to a sense of satisfaction from such trends, which have taken effectively defanged the shrill anti India campaign of Islamic extremists and their political/social mouthpieces in Bangladesh. However, satisfaction should not lead to complacency. There are also indications that in Bangladesh other countries, especially those not so friendly towards India-China, Pakistan and Turkey, to give a few examples have not desisted from efforts to clip India’s wings. Bangladesh in recent times has been seen to make concessions to both China and Pakistan — in approaching the bigger country for economic and other help, and improving diplomatic ties with Pakistan.

Ironically the foreign policy rhetoric emanating from Dhaka is not markedly different (and even reminiscent of) from the tone/tenor of official statements issued in India. Indian diplomats privately agree that for all Delhi’s efforts to ensure that Bangladesh gets a better deal on the Rohingyas issue in terms of international help and concessions from Myanmar, it would be neither advisable nor possible, to subject Naypitaw to strong pressures. Millions of rupees have been invested by India in mega regional connectivity projects in Myanmar — a neighbouring country that cannot be abandoned totally under China’s growing influence.

Significantly, China has never condemned Myanmar strongly in public for its treatment of the Rohingyas. However, it has offered to play honest broker between Myanmar and Bangladesh. India too has urged upon Myanmar to expedite the return of Rohingyas from Bangladesh. As for Western countries, even those strongly condemning Myanmar for its record in human rights violations, have neither declared total sanctions nor broken off diplomatic ties. Their policy is therefore is to balance skillfully some support and sympathy for Bangladesh, but not by alienating resource-rich Myanmar.

The tenor of changing Bangladeshi perceptions on such matters is perceptible in its mass media . The Dhaka-based print media carries scholarly analysis by eminent observers who firmly remind their leader Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina that Bangladesh is a 160 million –strong developing country that bigger countries cannot ignore. Therefore, while co-operating with India is important, the other big neighbour China must not feel ignored — not when Beijing offers cash and other help for infra-related projects. Dhaka should bargain more effectively between Delhi and Beijing. It should pursue a policy of equidistance from both and not allow either to take Bangladesh for granted.

There is also strong criticism over what is seen to be the present positioning of Bangladesh internationally. One commentator points out that despite all their assurances, China, the US, India or Japan — countries that matter internationally and enjoy good ties with Bangladesh --have not pressured Myanmar to make it take back its Rohingya citizens. Bangladesh must understand that every nation pursues its self interest. It must adopt the same approach towards other countries. In brief, its present policies can be summed by the old slogan in statecraft: nations have only permanent interests, they have neither permanent friends nor allies. (IPA Service)