The first move in this direction nevertheless has been intensifying the efforts to reach out to the voters and dispel the notion and opinion which the people of the state nurse about the BJP and precisely of Modi. Technically the election is not a major event and the state leadership of the NDA, especially the chief minister, Nitish Kumar, who has been projected as the chief ministerial candidate could have handled the situation. But the RSS is not in the mood to take it casually. According to the plan that has been framed, the Prime Minister would address eight rallies in the state during the next fortnight. This number could go up to a dozen.

What is important is Modi must reach out to the electorate. The reason is the people of the state ate angry with Modi for his careless handling of the plight of the labourers while they were fleeing the cities. The poor of the state are feeling hurt at the attitude and response of Modi. There is a feeling in the common people that Modi has insulted them and ignored their miseries to please the rich and urban middle class. Since the BJP leadership does not intend to speak out this openly in public, they are trying to hide behind the national issues.

The party leader say that since that the people of the state have been concerned about the developments at the Indo-China border and the economic slowdown it is necessary that the matter should be handled by Modi personally. He is the most credible leader to talk on these issues. He will also be talking about the Centre’s programmes as we have a number of beneficiaries covered under direct benefit transfer in Bihar. The BJP leadership do not intend that the real reason for the alienation of the voters should be discussed publically.

Earlier the BJP was sure of Nitish Kumar handling the situation. But the subsequent feedback from the local level RSS units in the state has told the central leaders that the situation was beyond the reach of Nitish and he was not in the position to salvage the condition. His position has considerably deteriorated due to the open rebellion of the LJP chief Chirag Paswan. Hr may not perform in a major way, but he has already jeopardised the condition of the NDA, especially of Nitish Kumar.

Modi would be undertaking such an arduous exercise when the grand alliance is in a pitiable condition. This simply reveals the loss of trust that the BJP and Modi have suffered in the state. The opposition camp is not united in Bihar. Though the left has entered into alliance with RJD and Congress, there is utter lack of coordination amongst them. The opposition has suffered a jolt due to the entry of the AIMIM into the election fray. Though the RJD-Congress claim to get sizeable Muslim vote in Bihar, AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi is expected to receive the support of Muslims in the Seemanchal belt of Kishanganj, Purnea, Araria and Katihar, further eating into Nitish’s support.

In a state where besides the grand alliance, there are three other alliances in the fray, it is sure that the opposition vote would get fragmented. Qwaisi has formed an alliance with Pappu Yadav and Kushwaha. Both these leaders have their own support bases. Pappu has been a force and has won at least four times; he was also Lok Sabha member. His wife is in Congress and was MP. Kushwaha was also a minister in Modi cabinet.

Though the Congress has entered into alliance with the RJD, the central leadership of the party has pulled up all the three senior leaders. The Congress high command is furious with its Bihar leadership for bowing to the wishes of the RJD leadership and making wrong selection of its candidates. The central leadership has intervened with full force to salvage the situation at this late stage, when the election are barely a fortnight away. Sources revealed that state leaders played mischief not only in selection of candidates but also changed some seats despite final agreement. The in-charge of Bihar, Shaktisinh Gohil plans to initiate severe action against these leaders after the elections.

A senior leader said that some really good leaders were denied ticket by the state leaders at the behest of the RJD leadership. The role of three Bihar leaders state unit chief Madan Mohan Jha, legislature party leader Sadanand Singh and Rajya Sabha MP Akhilesh Prasad Singh has been significantly curtailed. Gohil, along with general secretary in-charge of organisation, K.C. Venugopal, and Rahul Gandhi’s aide K. Raju have taken charge of the situation. Almost all the senior state leaders are angry with these three leaders. To diffuse the crisis for the time being senior leaders Meira Kumar, Nikhil Kumar, Anil Sharma, Tariq Anwar, Shakeel Ahmed, Shatrughan Sinha and Chandan Bagchi, have been included in this key committee.

In this backdrop when the opposition parties are working against each other and their support base is completely scattered, Modi addressing at least eight rallies is quite significant. It only implied that RSS and BJP are not willing to take any risk. THE BJP is getting four lakh party workers with smartphones and 10,000 ‘social media commandos’ ready to ensure Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s virtual rallies reach the largest audience.

The BJP has also launched an intensive drive to win over the EBCs and OBCs. The EBCs form about 25% of the population in Bihar, and are considered floating voters. Of the 144 candidates the RJD has put up as part of Grand Alliance, Yadavs comprise 40% (58 candidates), and Muslims 12% (17 candidates) — the bedrock of the party’s MY plank. Nearly a quarter of the BJP and JD(U) candidates belong to the EBC castes. BJP has already Vikassheel Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahani as its ally. The NDA is also eyeing the Yadav votes with 17 candidates in the JD(U)’s list of 115 and 16 in BJP’s list of 110. This means Yadavs, who comprise about 14% of the population, comprise 91 of the candidates announced so far. The JD(U) has fielded 11 Muslim candidates, and the BJP none. It had fielded one Muslim candidate in the last Assembly polls.

While the BJP has 50 upper castes in its list and 17 OBC Vaishya candidates, the JD(U) has fielded 18 upper caste candidates. The RJD has 12 upper caste nominees. The JD(U) has fielded 12 Kurmi and 15 Kushwaha candidates, and the BJP four candidates each from these OBC groups.
(IPA Service)