But the million dollar question is: can the Jose faction become the game-changer?

The CPI(M) and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan are sure that it can. CPI(M) state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan has identified himself with the sentiments expressed by the party and the CM. The Jose faction’s entry into the LDF, Kodiyeri, thinks, will help the LDF to expand the front’s mass base, especially in Central Kerala, the CPI(M)’s Achilles Heel.

The CPI(M) is relieved that the CPI has also welcomed the Jose faction’s induction into the LDF, shedding earlier reservations. “They have taken a political decision to part ways with the UDF and associate with the Left. We had opposed Jose K Mani’s entry when it was part o the UDF. When a party comes to our fold rejecting the UDF. There is no reason to oppose it,” said CPI state secretary Kanam Rajendran.

The only ally of the CPI(M) which is wary of the Jose faction’s decision is the Nationalist Congress Party(NCP). The NCP fears it may have to part with the Pala seat which its candidate Mani C Kappan wrested from the UDF in a by-election. The NCP has made it clear that it won’t part with any of the seats it holds at present.

However, the CPI(M) leadership appears to be confident of talking the NCP out of its tough stance in the interests of the LDF’s stability and cohesion. Rumours are, however, rife that the NCP may join UDF if Pala seat is taken from it. Reports also have it that Kappan has already had a meeting with Leader of the Opposition Ramesh Chennithala.

On his part, Jose is on record that he has not laid down any conditions prior to his entry into the LDF. There are, however, clear signs that the sailing may not be smooth for Jose in the days to come. There are many a hurdle in the way. An acid test is awaiting the young KC(M) leader in the form of the local bodies elections likely to be held in November or December. He has to prove his mettle in the electoral combat. If his party wins a decent number of seats, it will certainly improve its clout vis-à-vis the LDF. Conversely, if the party fails to put up a good show, it would weaken his bargaining power. That being the reality, much depends on the outcome of the local bodies elections.

Jose is, however, pretty confident of coming up with an impressive performance in the party’s strongholds: Kottayam, Pathanamthitta and Idukki districts, especially Kottayam. He is sure that the bigger slice of the KC(M)’s vote bank will stay with him. His rival, P J Joseph, who is in the UDF camp, does not agree. His reasoning: the KC(M)’s rank and file are emotionally attached to the UDF. After all, the party was an integral part of the UDF for over 30 years. It would be difficult for these voters to wrench themselves away from their UDF moorings, contend Joseph and his supporters.

As for the UDF, it is evident that the Jose faction’s decision would have an adverse effect on the front’s electoral fortunes in Central Kerala. Of course, the UDF leaders are putting on a brave front. For record’s sake, they say Jose’s switchover to the LDF would have no impact on the UDF’s poll prospects. But Congress and Indian Union Muslim League’s leaders privately admit that Jose’s decision will weaken the front in Central Kerala. And central Kerala has always been the key factor in deciding the winner of the assembly elections. The outlook, therefore, is grim for the UDF. (IPA Service)