For the present, it has frustrated the move of a re-energised state-level BJP to seek leadership of the AIADMK alliance to take on the rival Dravadian major, DMK, led by Mr M K Stalin, no less formidable as was demonstrated in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. For the 2021 poll, the picture as of now looks despondent though DMK leaders are supremely confident of avoiding a third consecutive loss in Assembly elections.

The state-level BJP is headed by L Murugan, a dissident from DMK, and has a few other renegades from rival Dravidian majors. Their hope is to secure some 50 seats to contest and even perhaps claim a share in power. More revealing on BJP strategy is the National General Secretary, Mr C T Ravi, outlining BJP "long-term" plans to dominate the southern region. Whether in alliance or not, Mr Ravi asserts, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry would become "BJP-controlled administrations”.

The Bihar battle outcome early in November might foreshadow possible gains and losses primarily for the majoritarian BJP Government at the Centre with its push plans for its Hindutva agenda. For the Congress and rest of secular opposition parties, the lessons would be equally significant, in the context of near term elections in West Bengal and Kerala..

Although months away, politics in Tamil Nadu has become more poll-centred. For AIADMK, the leadership may get re-opened depending on the outcome in May next. More demanding tasks lie ahead in alliance building and seat sharing with state-level parties. It has other questions to sort out like the return from jail of Ms. Sasikala, former confidante of Ms. Jayalalithaa, who has been politically-willed.

For the DMK-led "Secular Progressive Alliance" (SPA), its leader M K Stalin has to settle down to sharing alliance, taking into account castes and regions. The Congress continues to be a main partner sharing some 15 to 25 seats according to rough calculations. Mr Stalin has to work very hard to ensure that the election results in re-assertion of the Dravidian traditions, culture and the Tamil language - in the aftermath of the passing away of the DMK titan M.Karunanidhi

The AIADMK Government has maintained a friendly approach to the Modi Government, It has followed "BJP-centric" policies in its virtual acceptance of NEP (New Education Policy) and the modifications in the policy on Environment. And much more, it has not raised contentious issues on the three farm bills, in the midst of countrywide farmer protests, or on the controversial Labour Codes.

Mr Stalin has declared his alliance would fight the BJP majoritarian policy thrusts in its campaign. It has set up a Committee to draft the Manifesto and invited suggestions from the public and brotherly parties. The Tamil Nadu election would be mainly a BJP-DMK battle, according to local BJP leaders who go about treating DMK as "anti-national". Mr Stalin has been raising the banner of revolt against the Modi Government's policies and actions which are allegedly in violation of the constitutional framework and democratic governance.

Reservations castewise and social welfarism have been the dominant plank of both Dravidian Kazhagams. And Mr Stalin has given the slogan for Tamils to fight - "Namakku Naame" - which could mean "We stand on our own in safeguarding Tamil culture and language”. And the Modi Government has enforced Hindi in several ways for all purposes across the country as a whole including non-Hindi speaking States and areas.

It would be some months before the rival alliances, DMK=led Secular Progressive Alliance (including the Congress and Left parties) and the AIADMK-led alliance (including BJP) led by Mr Palaniswami get into shape and size, inclusive of state level parties like PMK, DMDK, VCK and minorities. The senior cine stars Mr Kamal Hasan, with his own political formation, and Mr Rajnikant are also likely players in the coming election.

The Bihar election battle has become important for BJP with its own strategic objectives: One, to make sure it is able to reinforce its strength with its goal of One- Nation (Hindu Rashtra) across a zealously guarded Dravidian preserve ruled by the rival majors, DMK and AIADMK alternatively since 1967.

At the national level, despite its highly comfortable position in the Lok Sabha, the Modi Government has run into serious problems not only in handling the Covid-19 pandemic afflicting the country, with its unstoppable surge involving millions of cases and a rising toll of lives, but also the economic collapse with growth declines and loss of jobs and untold misery for a vast slice of migrant population.

The majoritarian thrust of laws on farmers and labour codes being pushed in the midst of countrywide protests makes another dimension of widespread discontent in the country. It is understandable for the ruling dispensation at the Centre to get concerned over the future of its legislative and other agenda plans in a context of growing social unrest resulting from both its style of governance and economic woes of millions.

The Prime Minister is trying his best to utter words of comfort for the distraught millions and persuade that all his policies are designed to take care of poor and also take India to a new digital economy in the New India. For instance, after farm bills were rushed through both Houses of Parliament, Mr Modi has had to declare that Government would keep up food procurement and also announce MSP.

Nevertheless, there may be undercurrents of anxiety about loss of ground in the support claimed hitherto by BJP rulers for all its policies including those on education and environment and laws pushed through without democratic processes of consultation with opposition parties and groups

Thus, the ensuing Assembly elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu and also Kerala and later Uttar Pradesh (1922) gain added importance for BJP for sustaining its majority grip in Lok Sabha in 2024 so as to fulfil the BJP-RSS goal of one nation with one law (unitary constitution), one language, and Hindu culture. Its reverses would make a new opening for the opposition to make India really democratic. (IPA Service)