Second reason was not giving proper representation in the matter of seat sharing to the left parties and other smaller parties like HAM and VIP. After being denied a proper share they switched over to the NDA. They won 9 seats. The three Left parties fought from 29 constituencies: CPI(ML) from 19 seats, and the CPI and CPI(M) six and four seats, respectively. They could win around 16 seats; CPI(ML) won 12 seats, CPI 2 and CPI(M) also 2.

Modi’s personal diatribes and accusations against Tejashvi might not have least impact on the voters of Seemanchal and Mithilachal regions, which went to the polls in the third round on November 7, if the Asaduddin Owaisi's party - All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) which won five seats, would not have taken to hard line campaigning. The campaigning created the impression that Muslims of these regions were talking more of Islamisation. This scared the Hindus of the regions and in retaliation they voted for the BJP. The region is dominated by Maithili Brahmins.

However even amidst this scenario, the upper caste youth were not carried away. They voted for the MGB. AIMIM contested 20 seats. The party won five seats. AIMIM, a Muslim based party, took away the Muslim votes in the region harming the interests of the MGB. If Owaisi is to be believed, his Bihar unit chief had already met the RJD leadership for some kind of seat adjustment. But the RJD leadership did not show much enthusiasm.

This division of Muslim votes was one of the key reasons for defeat of the MGB. Reacting to allegations that his party was helping BJP, Owaisi said he was running a political party that has a right to contest on its own. He asserted; “I will fight in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and will fight every election in the country. Do I need to ask anyone's permission to fight the polls," Abdul Bari Siddiqui, veteran RJD leader and the former personal secretary of Karpoori Thakur lost his Darbhanga seat in Mithilanchal due to the presence of MIM candidate.

The BJP leadership has been bestowing the credit for the victory of the Bihar election on Modi. But astonishingly the party leaders just ahead of counting of votes, apprehending a bad performance, had started projecting Nitish as the face of the party. Before that they had projected Modi as the party face. The BJP leaders have been inconsistent in their electoral strategy. They changed their stand according to the suitability index of Modi.

CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya said: “50 seats for Left, 50 for Cong would have been more fair, We were in fact expecting a stronger performance of the MGB and the Left, because this was a very rare kind of election, almost a people’s movement. It looked like an upsurge of the youth. It was refreshing to see people shape the agenda with employment, education, basic issues. That kind of an environment helps the Left… All through the lockdown we were active, stood by the people. And the so-called double-engine government (if the NDA was in power at the state and in the Centre), people found both the engines were driverless (at the time)… Our comrades reached out with rations, we did relief work in flood-affected areas. I think this role of the Left during the lockdown helped us.”

Though the RJD and Left came together to contest the elections, the effort to have non-BJP political front was missing. Beyond electoral alliances and arithmetic non-BJP parties did not have any sustained dialogue, collaboration or understanding. This is quite imperative. Forging long-term coalitions will be critical in shaping the politics of non-BJP parties. In fact while the CPI(M) and Congress are planning to oppose the TMC in West Bengal, Bhattacharya has come out with the suggestion to have electoral understanding with Mamata Banerjee as according to him the need of the situation has been to defeat the BJP. He has cautioned that the policy to oppose the TMC would prove to be suicidal and only help the BJP coming to power in Bengal.

With the end of the Bihar elections, the BJP would shift its focus to other four states — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam — which are expected to go to polls together by April and May next year. In the north-eastern region, Assam is politically the most significant state which alone has 14 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats of the region. Already Amit Shah has been at his mission to encourage split and defection in the TMC. He knows that only the TMC turncoats can counter the TMC. In its game the BJP intends to fully use the popularity of Modi as the stable factor. The BJP had tried to use him as its electoral brand in Bihar but could not succeed. The social contradictions and compulsion to share power with the JD(U) proved to be stumbling factor. But it is not the case in Bengal. The party would transform him into a brand

One development is quite noticeable. The BJP might have won the assembly by-elections, but the fact cannot be ignored that the party is crumbling. It has already lost 12 per cent of its popular vote share in Bihar in this election, though seat has increased. It is more of the nature of, Congress’s loss is the BJP’s gains. Post results people have started describing Rahul Gandhi as a non-performer and unable catch the imagination of the young generation. His speeches fail to enthuse the voters. In fact the youths find his speeches incoherent and boring.

There is a general feeling that he must learn to express his views in a more coherent manner. It is said that almost every senior leader in Bihar was unhappy with candidate selection and felt even the campaign was mismanaged.

If at all Congress intends to challenge Modi, it must start rectifying its functioning and restructuring the party. Rahul Gandhi must improve It is sad the Congress has not been able to create one strong leader from Bihar in the last three decade to lead the party. (IPA Service)