A resurgent state-level BJP, making poll-related claims and assertions to the acute discomfort of the ruling party, raised crowds to greet Mr Amit Shah on arrival and make its presence felt. Mr Shah who was earlier received at the airport by Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and his deputy O. Panneerselvam, got out of his car to walk along the main road outside the airport for a few yards and wave at the supporters. That helped to choke traffic on arterial roads.

The laying of foundation stones and launching of projects totalling some 67,000 crore at the venue where Mr Shah paid respects to pictures of MGR and Jayalalithaa, the top founders and leaders of AIADMK, naturally took a back seat with the dominant political noises.

For his part, Mr Shah profusely complimented the Palaniswami-Panneerselvam duo for providing "good governance" in Tamil Nadu, especially in the handling of the Covid-19 crisis, The Union Home Minister did not miss the occasion to launch a tirade against DMK for "corruption, dynastic and caste politics" and challenged the party on the issue of Centre’s support to TN as against the Congress-DMK Government record for ten years.

Mr Shah's visit came when DMK led by Mr Stalin is in the initial stages of a mass campaign under way with the State's 61 million electorate, a little more than half of them women. Electoral work is on with the two Dravidian majors trying to firm up their strategies and raising of cadre levels in all districts. BJP leaders say they wiil be fighting DMK direct.

As of now, with the covid-19 continuing unabated in some districts, and anti-incumbency factors against the ten-year AIADMK regime still to become visible, the poll scene is yet to pick up momentum. But AIADMK CM Mr. Ramaswami is assertive of striking progress with the Centre's assistance in fighting the epidemic while the State has vigorously pursued the development agenda. And he is confident of being rewarded for "best governance" of AIADMK and winning for the AIADMK-BJP Alliance a majority of seats in the 234-member Assembly and for AIADMK to form the Government again in 2021.

The State BJP led by L Murugan, has been building up support for the party by taking out a "Vel" procession to six temples of Lord Murugan across Tamil Nadu in defiance of official restrictions while some of local leaders are wanting BJP lead the polls.to go alone.

Mr Shah at a separate meeting told local partymen that they should leave alliance politics to the central leadership and work hard at state level to help BJP to come to power "on its own in our time"

The current scenario suggests that AIADMK would form the Government, if the party with BJP as ally, wins a majority of seats and that the largest party would not part with more than 25 seats at the most. The issue of power-sharing is likely to figure only at the time of seat sharing for the AIADMK-led alliance which besides BJP at the national level would include two or three state level parties like PMK (Dr Ramados) and DMDK (Capt, Vijay Kant). PMK is, however, demanding 25 per cent reservation for the Vanniar community it represents.

Mr Stalin's tasks, although organisationally DMK is well-tuned to take on the AIADMK, have become more difficult in a changing climate, partly due to the after-effects of the pandemic which warrant a hard look at the priorities that Governments have to provide for besides basic economic issues of farmers welfare, incomes and jobs. The party manifesto has been assigned to a committee. Meanwhile, Mr Stalin may be over-optimistic in assuming that people of Tamil Nadu are frustrated with the performance of AIADMK ruling for ten years.

It is difficult to foresee the shape of things to come by early 2021, the political climate, the state of economy, and global factors including peace and security on India's borders. The Modi Government’s majoritarian policies at the Centre may also have an electoral impact and the forthcoming Union Budget for 2021/22 can prove decisive in this regard.

Politically, BJP wants to gain control in West Bengal as an insurance against any setbacks in other states like UP in 2022. Its recent success in Bihar may however prove an exception in its consolidation strategy. But the Congress cannot afford a Bihar-like performance, winning 19 out of 70 seats allocated by RJD (Mahagathbandhan).

DMK leadership is not envisaging more than 15 to 20 seats and the Congress realises it has to deliver and would make a study of winnable constituencies. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance will comprise besides the Congress, the Left parties and a few smaller state parties. (IPA Service)