First of all, let it be clear that MIM wasn’t solely responsible for the RJD led Mahagatbandhan’s defeat. True that it ate some Muslim votes of RJD and its partner Congress but it didn't impact in a large way. Owaisi’s party contested only in 20 seats in the state and managed to win 5 seats in Muslim dominated Seemanchal region — out of which 4 seats were held by RJD and Congress.

The other seat belonged to JD(U) — which was an ally of RJD in the 2015 assembly election. In the rest of the seats, MIM was hardly a factor — except in one seat. So, it is clear that MIM, which is accused as a “B-team” of BJP by Congress, RJD, Trinamool Congress etc, didn’t have a large impact this time in the Bihar elections — although it may have in state’s politics in the future.

In the case of West Bengal, the political scenario is quite different from Bihar. The politics of the state, where the Left Front led by the CPI(M) ruled continuously for 34 years, revolved mostly around the issue of industrialization in the LF regime’s last years But after Mamata Banerjee’s ascension to power in 2011, the politics of the state started to change — as her government focussed on the problems faced by Muslims, who started shifting towards her party since 2009 Lok Sabha elections. As a result, Trinamool Congress has been successful in cultivating its own strong Muslim vote bank.

Infact, the Muslim support for Mamata Banerjee is on a rise in West Bengal. The CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey 2019 too strongly indicates this. According to the survey, 70 per cent Muslims voted for Trinamool — a rise of 30 per cent compared to 2014 polls. On the other hand, only 10 per cent Muslims voted for the Left Front in 2019 when 31 per cent of them had voted for it in 2014. In the case of Congress, the survey says that only 12 per cent Muslims preferred it compared to that of 24 per cent in 2014.

The figures of the survey clearly indicate that both the Left and the Congress saw a huge decline in their Muslim votes — which mostly shifted towards Trinamool Congress. These figures of the survey are reflected in the results too. Despite Trinamool managing to win only 22 seats, a reduction of 12 seats in compared to the 2014 polls, the party saw a growth of 4 per cent in its vote share — this rise is mostly due to the shift of Muslim supporters of both Left and Congress towards Mamata's party. Importantly, the CSDS-Lokniti Survey also points out that BJP got 4 per cent Muslim support, an increase of 2 per cent compared to that of 2014 — when “secular” parties like CPI(M) and Congress saw a huge decline of Muslim support.

In Bengal, the three districts — Malda, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur — are Muslim majority districts. These 3 districts share a border with Bangladesh. The other districts that share a border with Bangladesh are — South 24 Pargana, North 24 Pargana, Nadia, South Dinajpur, Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar and Darjeeling. Except in Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri, the rest have a Muslim population in between 25-35 per cent. South 24 Pargana and North 24 Pargana are regarded as Trinamool bastions — and the two districts together represent 64 assembly constituencies.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, Trinamool retained all the 5 Lok Sabha constituencies falling under South 24 Pargana — while it managed to hold 3 out of 5 falling under North 24 Pargana. Notably, BJP too saw an increase of its vote share in the Trinamool strongholds.

In Malda, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur, Trinamool Congress wasn’t that strong a few years back. Malda, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur have been known for years as Congress bastions — although in North Dinajpur, Left Front too always had a strong presence. However, in the recent years, the Congress is witnessing decline of fortunes in its 3 bastions in the state — and the same goes for Left Front in North Dinajpur. It is mainly attributed to the shift of Muslim supporters of both Congress and Left towards Trinammol Congress.

In the six Lok Sabha constituencies that fall under these 3 districts — Malda North, Malda South, Murshidabad, Jangipur, Berhampore and Raiganj — Trinamool saw a growth of more than 10 per cent votes, except in Malda South, where the party saw a hike of 6 per cent votes. Not only this, Trinamool managed to wrest Jangipur and Murshidabad from Congress. In the Coochbehar Lok Sabha constituency, once a stronghold of All India Forward Bloc (AIFB), Trinamool saw an increase of 4 per cent votes despite the sitting party MP losing to the BJP. This means that the AIFB’s Muslim votes mostly got transferred to the Trinamool Congress.

Not to forget Mamata Banerjee has been at the forefront of opposing the CAA — which only would have solidified her Muslim support. Also, Mamata’s strong jibe at Owaisi, without naming him, as a “facilitator of BJP” wouldn’t help the MIM in Bengal — as for Muslims, Mamata is the most trustable leader. So, it is unlikely that Owaisi led MIM would have any large impact in the 2021 assembly polls in the state — although it may have some impact in a few constituencies.

As regards the CPI(M)-Congress combination, the muslims do not consider them as the alternative to Mamata in the state. They are all aware of the aggressive nature of the BJP campaign in West Bengal and they have come to believe that Mamata is the only one leader who can guarantee their peace and security amidst the polarization attempts being orgnised by the saffrons by using their huge muscle power and financial clout

CPI(M)’s Didibhai-Dadabhai retort in terms of identifying Mamata with Modi , is having opposite impact. Even the liberals within the muslims who had sympathy for Left and voted for them in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, though in very small numbers, are deserting the Left for this myopic attitude at a time when they were looking for a total unity of anti-saffron forces to combat BJP juggernaut. For Bengalee muslims, there is only one option-how not to allow BJP to come to power in the state. Neither Left-Congress nor Owaisi are having any relevance to them when their existence is at stake. (IPA Service)