“It is the need of the hour. If it is not done now, it will never be done. For this, I urge people to stand by me. Together we will bring change," the superstar-turned politician tweeted this week.

There have been speculations that he is inclined towards the BJP, though Rajinikanth has been rather coy about discussing his plans. The problem for the BJP is that if Rajinikanth’s party decides to go it alone and contest all 234 seats, it will eat into the BJP ally AIADMK’s vote share more than the DMK.

Rajini’s entry comes at a time when the incumbent AIADMK-BJP alliance, DMK-Congress-Left front, and another super star Kamal Hasan have already firmed up their alliance. With BJP’s ambitious plans to expand in the South, is it possible for Rajini to join the BJP-AIADMK combine, as the elections have become a game of arithmetic?

Rajini has been dilly-dallying about entering politics since 1996 when the Congress offered him to make its chief ministerial candidate to counter the then chief minister J. Jayalalithaa. Since then the Congress as well as the BJP have been wooing him

“The time to rewrite Tamil Nadu’s destiny has come. There’s a great need for change... it’s now or never. Voted to power, we will change everything,” Rajinikanth has promised this week.

Failing repeatedly to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu, the BJP had been trying to goad Rajini to enter politics, but he had resisted the attempts so far.

The BJP is handicapped with no tall leaders at the state level and would like to use him as its mascot. Being a megastar, he has the advantage of being a known face and has huge fan clubs. He proposes to launch a spiritual party as opposed to the atheist Dravidian parties.

It will be advantageous to Rajini also as the BJP is a disciplined party and has manpower and money power. The BJP would also help facilitate other things like registration of his new party etc. So both think that they are natural allies.

Secondly, Rajini does not have time to build a party before the polls. His fan clubs alone will not be enough. Though he had asked his followers to register their names on his website, you need teams for booth managements and door-to-door campaigns etc. The BJP has already loaned Arjun Murthy, head of the state BJP’s intellectual cell, as “chief coordinator” of Rajini’s new party indicating what is to come.

While the BJP has welcomed his entry, Deputy chief minister and AIADMK coordinator O. Pannerselvam has also hinted at a possible alliance with Rajini’s party. Addressing a meeting in Theni this week, he said: “We welcome great film actor Rajinikanth’s decision to enter politics. In politics, anything can happen. If there is an opportunity, an alliance will be formed (with Rajinikanth).”

Rajini also has some challenges to face. First of all, the field in Tamil Nadu already has two strong Dravidian parties -the DMK and the AIADMK, who share a combined vote bank of 50 percent. The other smaller but significant regional players such as the PMK and actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK are in the line-up.

Secondly, he has some health problems, which he has also admitted now, as Rajini had undergone kidney operation and might not be able to withstand a rigorous campaign.

Thirdly, so far there is no clarity on whether his party will fight next year's Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu independently or strike an electoral alliance.

Fourthly, in a caste- ridden state, Forward Caste such as Mudaliyars has divided their loyalty between the two Dravidian parties for long. As for the dominant castes-- the Gounders have Chief Minister E Palanisami of the AIADMK, the Thevars have Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, the Vanniyars have Dr. Ramadoss and the scheduled castes have the VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi). Vijayakanth’s DMDK, Vaiko-led MDMK, the two Left parties, and actor-turned-politician Kamal Hassan's Makkal Needi Maiyyam share the caste groups. The minorities go with the DMK or the AIADMK. Parties such as CPM, CPI, VCK, and MDMK are aligned with the DMK coalition.

In all probability, Rajini is bound to have a secret or open understanding with the BJP, as both need each other. The problem for Rajini will be who to attack during the campaign - – the Centre or the state government. Many indications are that Rajini will lean towards BJP or else the latter can use other methods. (IPA Service)