This will be the first time that the BPF won’t be able to rule the BTC, despite emerging as the single largest party by winning 17 seats. The council will be ruled by a new coalition comprising United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), BJP and Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) led by Kokrajhar Lok Sabha Naba Kumar Sarania. UPPL and BJP garnered 12 and 9 seats respectively while GSP won a lone seat. It must be noted that BPF, still a partner in the BJP led government, requested BJP to form the council but the saffron party ignored its request.

Actually, BJP-BPF relations haven’t been in good terms since the signing of the Bodo Peace Accord this year by the Centre with the state government and Bodo groups that included the four factions of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the influential All Bodo Students Union (ABSU). After the peace pact, Pramod Boro of ABSU joined the former Rajya Sabha MP UG Brahma led UPPL and the regional party made Pramod its president. UPPL is a regional party formed in 2015 and its earlier avatar was People’s Coordination for Democratic Rights (PDCR) — which won 7 seats in 2015 by hurting BPF’s prospects.

After the signing of the Bodo pact, UPPL definitely got a new strength. This is the reason that the much touted Bodo pact has been criticised by BPF. The regional party was already alerted with the growing clout of UPPL in the BTR region. On the other hand, UPPL also started bonding well with BJP — as both have been strongly supporting the pact. Although both the two parties contested alone in the BTC polls, it was quite clear to everyone that both were eager to form the council together after the results — as the developing bonhomie between BJP and UPPL was clearly visible. Notably, BJP campaigned heavily with finance minister Himanta Biswa Sharma, also the convenor of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), particularly targeting the BPF president Hagrama Mohilary. BJP’s new bonding with UPPL resulted in souring relations with BPF.

The elections, nevertheless, show that the BPF is still a significant force in the region. Given BPF’s growing bitter relations with BJP, the Congress has been wooing the regional party to join the proposed grand alliance of anti-BJP parties. It's a different story that the grand alliance of Congress and AIUDF performed disastrously in the council polls — as the Muslim votes transferred to the BPF. Importantly, both Congress and AIUDF contested this election together for the first time as a test before the state elections; but the alliance test failed very badly in the council polls.

Just before the assembly polls, the ruling NDA camp is witnessing new alignments. As of now, BPF’s exit from NDA is almost certain but this may not harm the NDA prospects. Already the three BPF ministers gave a miss to the cabinet meeting after being ignored by BJP. BPF is now expected to join hands once again with its old partner, Congress, after being ignored by BJP.

Significantly, it is said in political circles that chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal is soft on BPF while Himanta Biswa Sharma isn’t. Himanta, as of now, has said that BJP-BPF-AGP coalition is intact till the end of this government’s term as promised to the people in Assam during 2016 elections — but is conspicuously silent regarding continuation of alliance with BPF after the end of the present government’s term.

The BTR region is dominated by non-Bodos — who were polarised during the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections leading to the defeat of BPF at both the elections and victory of Naba Sarania. Notably, Sarania’s party has now joined hands with BJP. On the other hand, UPPL’s vote bank mainly consists of Bodos while BJP has a hold on non-Bodo votes minus the Muslim votes. Also the BTC poll results are definitely a boost for the saffron party. Although the party failed to meet its high expectations, it successfully managed to increase its footprint in the region by gaining 8 seats compared to the previous election.

For NDA in Assam, the newly formed UPPL-BJP-GSP combine has arithmetic in its side in the 12 assembly seats falling under the BTR region. UPPL already has requested to incorporate it in the NDA. Interestingly, both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah have congratulated the NDA for its victory in BTC polls. Basically, the semi-final BTC election results not only gave a new shape to the ruling NDA camp but also boosted it before the final Assam elections. (IPA Service)