The negative part is that a final decision on the release of Teesta River waters from India to Bangladesh during the dry season may be delayed again. The matter is pending since 2011, the year Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina agreed to work out a detailed plan to ensure that the Teesta waters would be shared equitably. After a water sharing schedule for the dry season had been worked out and a final agreement was ready for signing in 2013 between the two Prime Ministers at a ceremony in Dhaka, there occurred a sudden setback.

Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, also scheduled to visit Dhaka, suddenly cancelled her trip. This left Dr Singh and the Indian delegation highly embarrassed. Worse, she questioned the specifics of the formula itself. Her objection was that if implemented, such provisions would leave the North Bengal districts totally dry during a long five month period. She accused some officials of keeping her in the dark about the details.

Her sudden decision led to a chill in bilateral relations and a political fallout in India’s national politics. Relations got significantly strained between the Indian National Congress and the All India Trinamool Congress. The same year, there was eventual parting of ways between the two parties.

Between then and now, there have been repeated efforts made at various levels by Bangladesh to sort out the Teesta question, as it has come to be known. But Ms Banerjee’s determined stonewalling has stalled progress. Relations between her and the Bangladeshi Prime Minister are reportedly warm .They exchange gifts and goodwill messages on most occasions.

But Bangladesh has not yet received its due share of water from the Teesta that is due to it as a downstream country .This leads to the question-is there any positive signs for Bangladesh in the present situation?

A tentative but unofficial answer being discussed in Dhaka as well as Kolkata is that there could be good news for Bangladesh after the West Bengal Assembly elections are over in mid 2021 on schedule. But this remains contingent upon the ruling Trinamool Congress losing the elections. In case the Bharatiya Janata Party as the front runner opposition party wins, chances are that the Teesta river issue would be settled without delay.

This line of thought is pursued seriously by Dhaka-based political/media analysts. Recent articles in the Bangladeshi print media are a strong indication of Bangladesh’s keen interest in the West Bengal elections. As a Kolkata-based observer puts it, ‘For unforeseeable reasons there will be many people in Bangladesh rooting for a BJP win in Bengal in 2021!’

Again, the basis of such optimism can be questioned. It may not be easy for the GOI to ignore the interests of North Bengal districts even if the Trinamool Congress is no longer in power, on the specific question of the Teesta water sharing.

Happily for Dhaka, there are adequate counter arguments. Both Dhaka and Delhi have rejected the alternate water sharing plan proposed by Ms Banerjee. Her suggestion was that Bangladesh be given its due share of water by diverting the flow of the other rivers running through North Bengal — Torsa, Jaldhaka and Raidak.

Sheikh Hasina rejected this. Her argument: the hinterland served by the Teesta in Bangladesh was huge. Millions of people living there had been sustained by its waters. The Torsa and other rivers did not serve a comparable hinterland or human habitations built up over generations. The mechanics of drawing out water from such rivers and diverting it to Bangladesh would not be easy, given the complex local terrain. Ergo, North Bangladesh must get its due share of the Teesta waters — nothing more, nothing less.

Trinamool Congress leaders remain hopeful that the BJP would try to persuade Bangladesh to accept Ms Banerjee’s alternate proposal and not alienate the people of North Bengal districts in India. ‘Such decisions have nothing to do with election results,’ says a senior TMC leader.

He and others like him in the Trinamool Congress may be in for a surprise.

After the most recent meeting held on December 17, 2020 between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina, a joint statement was issued. It said that the GOI was still continuing all efforts to implement the water sharing formula outlined in 2011. Neither country approved of the alternate plan put up by Ms Banerjee.

There is a further question of regional security to be considered by Delhi. Aware of the tensions over the Teesta water sharing issue, China recently offered an immediate assistance of around $300 million to Dhaka according to Bangladesh media. The objective was to revive the flow in downstream Teesta, without depending on any release of the flow from the Indian side.

The solution involves deepening the downstream river channel, narrowing its width, regular dredging and diversions, etc. The help of hundreds of technicians and experts will be needed in handling special equipment.

Just the sort of thing India’s NDA government would not want — the presence of hordes of Chinese ‘experts’ working for years on a river-related project not far from the sensitive narrow Siliguri corridor(Chicken’s neck) area !

It remains to be seen what sort of relief if any is arranged for the people of North Bengal if an accord is finally concluded with Bangladesh on a long pending issue. (IPA Service)