The major factor which tilted the scales in factor of the LDF has been the entry to the Front of the Jose K Mani faction of the Kerala Congress(M). The LDF made massive gains in central Kerala comprising Ernakulam, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta and Idukki districts, the traditional stronghold of the UDF, thanks to the support of the Jose faction.

Not surprisingly, the UDF is smarting under the loss of its fortresses in central Kerala. The Front knows jolly well that if it has to bounce back and wrest power in the Assembly elections, due in May next year, it has to win back the trust of the alienated Christian voters.

The desperation in the UDF camp is clear from the initiative taken by Indian Uuion Muslim League(IUML) general secretary P K Kunhalikutty for a dialogue with the Christian community leaders. The fence-mending mission assumes significance because of the perception that the Muslims are cornering 80 per cent of the central funds meant for the welfare of minorities in Kerala, to the detriment of the Christian community.

Kunhalikutty’s talks on Tuesday with Cardinal Baselios Cleemis of the Syro Malankara Catholic Church was aimed at clearing the ‘misconceptions’ about the Muslim community’s domination of the Congress-headed UDF. Details of what transpired at the meeting are not available. But one thing is for sure. Just one meeting is not enough to clear the misunderstandings. The best construction that can be put on the meeting is that it was an attempt at breaking the ice. It will take many more talks to regain the trust of the estranged Christian community. Kunhalikutty knows this. Hence his announcement that more such placatory talks would be held in the days ahead.

The UDF’s objective of wooing the Jose faction of the KC(M) can be achieved only if it can convince the Church leaders of the need for a rapprochement . If its performance in the local body elections is anything to go by, there is only a remote possibility of the UDF wresting power from the LDF, pumped up by the local body poll victory. This being the ground reality, it will take a Herculean effort to convince the Christian leaders of the ‘inevitability’ of backing the UDF.

Apart from other things, what has pained the Christians is an article which appeared in the IUML’s mouthpiece, “Chandrika” on the conversion of Istanbul’s church, Hagia Sophia, into a mosque. It may be mentioned that the Kerala Catholic Bishop’s Council (KCBC) had also voiced its strong displeasure over the IUML’s stand on the conversion of the iconic church in Istanbul into a mosque.

Last but not the least, the IUML’s opposition to the 10 per cent reservation for the economically backward in the forward communities has also irked the Christian community. Various Christian church leaders have strongly condemned the IUML’s stand on the sensitive issue. The IUML’s hostile attitude to the 10 per cent reservation decision has only reinforced suspicions that the League is insensitive to the concerns and sensibilities of other minorities in the State.

The UDF is not the only front which is vigorously wooing the Christian community. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also making a serious effort to build bridges with the Christians. The seriousness of the BJP’s efforts is clear from the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself has been persuaded to begin a dialogue with Christian leaders. The initiative has been taken by Kerala BJP leader and Mizoram Governor P S Sreedharan Pillai. The PM has had talks with both the Orthodox and Jacobite factions on the issue of inter-church dispute in Kerala’s Malankara Church.

The BJP’s move for talks with the Christian leaders stems from its realisation that the party-led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) cannot make much headway in Kerala without an alliance or an understanding with the Christian voters. Efforts made in the past have not been successful. It remains to be seen whether the Prime Minister’s intervention can achieve a breakthrough. It is clear from the reaction of Sreedharan Pillai that an understanding or tie-up with the Christian groups is not easy to achieve, given the deep animosity that exists between the Orthodox and Jacobite factions besides the grave reservations that the community harbours against the Saffron camp.

As for the LDF, the Front is sitting pretty at the moment. The Front has managed to lure the most powerful Christian party into its fold, thanks to a political masterstroke fashioned by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself. That has put an end to the LDF’s problems in central Kerala, hitherto its Achilles Heel. But for a major blunder on the LDF’s part or a miracle wrought by the UDF, the Assembly elections will see a repeat of the LDF’s performance in central Kerala, which decides the winner in the ‘Final’ – the Assembly election battle.

As far as the Jose K Mani faction of the KC(M) is concerned, there is no reason why it should return to the UDF. The political situation is in favour of the LDF, which could, in all probability, retain power. In the local body elections, the LDF managed to secure a lead in 101 out of the 140 Assembly constituencies, while the UDF led only in 39 constituencies. (IPA Service)