His declared "spiritual politics" move was seen in BJP circles as a favourable pointer for taking him closer to Prime Minister Modi. But his latest announcement on December 29, after a brief hospitalisation in Hyderabad, he described as "God's warning", makes it final.

The 70-year old Rajinikanth said in Chennai, on return from Hyderabad, he was "unable to come to politics by floating a party". He was to announce the party on December 31. He said he would, however, serve people in whatever way he could without entering electoral politics.

The announcement was a shock to his massive fan club statewide which kept praying for his speedy recovery in hospital. His intended political formation was to be based on "spiritual politics" with aim of bringing about a total change in Tamil Nadu in the 2021 State Assembly elections.

Mr Rajinikant's decision clears one major uncertainty enabling other state-level parties in the alliance line-up behind the two major Dravidian rivals, ruling AIADMK and DMK , both bereft of their supremos, Ms. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi respectively.

A host of issues clouds the proposed AIADMK-BJP alliance and differences have cropped up over the respective status and strength of the partners. The state-level BJP keeps the issue of the Chief Ministerial candidate in doubt, though AIADMK has decided that MrEdappadi K Palaniswami would be the leader going into the poll battle. Who would lead the alliance, AIADMK or NDA is also a question mark raised.

Chief Minister Palaniswami with all his dynamism in launching the AIADMK poll campaign at Chennai on December 27 is under pressure from his partymen to resist any demand from BJP for power-sharing and to defend strongly the Dravidian ideology which, it is contended, has raised the social and cultural base and spread welfare in Tamil Nadu. The national party should not be allowed to push its ideology through alliance with AIADMK which, however, may not be able to resist central policies which may not serve the state's interests.

BJP's in-charge person for Tamil Nadu, Mr Sudhakar Reddy wants AIADMK ministers to make "balanced comments" and says Home Minister Mr Amit Shah has said AIADMK is NDA partner.

The state BJP has appealed to the state government to put up Prime Minister Narendra Modi's photo at all panchayat offices, he said. All alliance-related issues would be discussed by the central parliamentary board of BJP.

At the other end, the DMK leader Mr M K Stalin has made allegations of corruption against the AIADMK regime, in a petition to the Governor and has threatened to move the court if the Governor "hesitates" to act on the party's complaints.

Other than the two Dravidian majors, which are yet to take up alliance-making for the 234-member Assembly elections in May 2021, the third force at present is the Makkal Needhi Madam (MNM) founded by another major actor Mr Kamal Haasan. Mr Haasan has lately been intensively campaigning for "honest minds" to end "corrupt regimes" and usher in an era of "honest politics".

At the DMK level, Party leader Mr M K Stalin has begun making campaign speeches, but the party's poll programme is expected by the end of January. The Congress, CPI, CPM and a couple of state-level parties have been traditional partners in the DMK-led secular democratic alliance.

Mr Stalin and a few other DMK leaders feel it could be safer to capture a good majority if DMK itself contests some 200 seats. Apparently, he has the Bihar example in mind as the Congress fared badly.

With more than four months to go, there are no firmer trends in alliance formations but the state-level BJP has been on an over-drive and envisages the forthcoming election as a "direct clash" between BJP and DMK, thus indirectly under-playing the significance of ruling AIADMK which had readily aligned itself with BJP in order to sustain itself for a third consecutive term in office. The BJP would rather have it as NDA led by AIADMK headed by Mr Palaniswami. That would involve a certain amount of power-sharing which of course would depend on the electoral outcome in May.

Reactions to Mr Rajinikant's decision not to enter politics are varied. In effect the status quo in T N politics will continue, with two parties claiming leadership for the Dravidian ideology, while others see withdrawal of Mr Rajinikant from the poll scene would have the effect of improving DMK's prospects.

Mr Kamal Haasan has expressed disappointment that he could not discuss with Mr Rajinikant a third front alternative but said health was more important. Mr Rajinikant said he was sorry to disappoint millions of fans but hoped the Rajini Makkal Manram which had been there for some time would continue with its welfare activities. (IPA Service)