The grain growing farmers strike against the new three legislations with blockage of national highways leading to and from the national capital for sixty days has turned into a major political event suggesting to many that the strike can end only in either new laws go or the Prime Minister goes. It may be only wishful thinking in many alarmist minds the speculation is in many minds over the possible and probable main contestants in the next round either as his replacement now or after the next electoral battle. Main contesting parties with their existence in several states are the Bharatiya Janata Party reduced to be dependent on an individual Narendra Modi and other is the Indian National Congress converted to b serfdom of a family.
The state confined political edifices through consolidation of other backward classes without a share in political powers despite their huge numbers or the deprived classes or self aggrieved communities and castes that had emerged since 1990 to get benefits as feeders to coalition politics since then were virtually wiped out by the NaMo formula of economic replacing the constricted religious or caste considerations. The Other Backward Classes were consolidated strength based state parties in two major states. The regional Parties had got the power for ruling in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In both the states only upper castes had the exclusive dominance in the state power corridors in their hands for at least two decades before it. The NaMo sweep as a phenomenon wiped out the regional parties from power corridors. His projection of only the economic growth for all without the class or caste preference or without allowing religious considerations to dominate in prejudicial manners in favour of only upper castes had convinced voters to go for him. The young were mesmerized by his innovative ideas in first fifteen months his first term.
They supported him even more in the 2019 election even though he was yet to fulfill their aroused expectations. Most except the urban elite could see that he was frustrated in his drive to improve the economy. His harsh economic measure of demonetization in November 2016 had hurt the urban middle class more than the lower or rural class that did not feel crunch of cash. It is irrelevant whether he intended to or his measure had accidentally hurt the traditional vote bank of the ruling party. The fact remains that it actually suffered more. As a seasoned administrator, he would not have been unaware of the consequences of his harsh measure. Such conclusion, right or wrong may have contributed to convert young from the classes that suffer from the belief of deliberate injustice by the upper classes to be his ardent supporters to give him added strength.
NaMo had not only sought mandate for his government in both the elections but had also not shared his political platform with any party leaders including the party chief ministers. Even in his five road shows he was alone in his motor vehicle rides through thick of major urban centres. Name of the party or the party symbols were seen missing in most of his political rallies. Even the Sangh chief, Mohan Bhagwat had noted it and declared at his Holimilan Rally at Ranchi on March 11 2020. He had disassociated the Sangh from its approval to Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister.
The chances of NaMo giving up his political stance that gave him the mandate twice to make up with the Sangh chief are not bright or the Sangh chief accepting and adopting his political formula are equally dismal. The Party would not have opportunity to have both the world. It cannot win mandate on basis of the Sangh formula and without NaMo leading. NaMo would not be acceptable to the Sangh. So the party would be in deep trouble. It will have to face the next election either without the head or without the legs. In 1984 the party had won only two seats as the Sangh machinery had not worked or it. The BJP chief then Atal Behari lamented at the Hyderabad conclave that new party had only heads and legs were missing.
The Congress party is not only rudderless but also a rootless political entity. It is difficult even to call it a political entity as the family has been unable to come to grips with the political reality that Indian voters are no more illiterate crowds of sheep that can be driven to revive the party fortunes in the name o Indira Gandhi. Two new generations since her time have replaced majority that had lived in her time. She was living memory for them. For the overwhelming majority of present voters, she is only pages of history. Her family has also to understand that she was defeated in 1977 and her son Rajiv Gandhi failed in 1989 and Sonia Gandhi received the political drubbing in 1999 and in 2014.
In four thousands history, India was at no time land of hungry, naked and ignorant zombies. They were no literate in modern sense but were never ignorant but wide enough to have always known where their interests were. Since the global economy perception winds began wafting through India in 1990 the social transformation was rapid. Not only literacy proportion improved but the quest for bread of dignity also became obvious.
By the time India is in the process of electing the new democratic rulers, the Indian literacy rate would have crossed the mark of ninety percent and population forced to life below poverty line would be down to less than six percent. But more than that even economically less fortunate would be seeking dignity without being driven by consciousness of caste or class considerations. So class consolidation based politics also would be futile attempt.
The class distinctions walls began collapsing in 2014. Now incidents of violence in the name of cow protection cause revulsion. The Sangh would be only a year away from its century but would have lost its relevance as younger generation is no more enamoured to seek or depend on divine blessings. Instead they are already depending on evolving their abilities through their brain power and education. NaMo need not point out that most developed countries have a serious crisis of shortages of skilled young hands to keep their wheels moving due to aging of their labour. Young have already begun to develop their skills.
Sonia Gandhi needs to change members of her Advisory Council that had misled her to believe that by offering free roti under charity programme at the cost of taxpayers, she would win mandate. She will need to teach them to read their history again to understand Indian always preferred dignity to charity. Unless political parties remoulded their work agenda, they would remain as far away from the mandate as the Congress was in the last two elections. Same will also apply to sons of leaders who had built their power castles on exploiting the anger of young on the basis of class or caste prejudices.
THE FUTURE REGIME
Vijay Sanghvi - 2021-01-16 10:24
The next election to the Lok Sabha is due only in April-May 2024, virtually forty months away. Despite the apparent disenchantment of the Prime Minister as the striking changes in his outer personal look suggests he is not likely to go in for the early polls. But this is a political arena and even a minor incident can blow up to be a crisis.