Both the Eastern states have in their electorate a high, more than a fourth, portion of minorities, mostly poor and illiterates. In Bengal, they had traditionally backed the left coalition rule for 35 years,. In the 2011 assembly polls, Mamta Bannerji then the rail minister in the Congress led UPA coalition government snatched them away from the assured vote bank of the left coalition with her last minute summersault in voting against the bill for assured one third seats to women in elective bodies. She had approved the draft bill in the cabinet and her party had voted for it in the Lok Sabha. But she directed her party members to vote against it after Lalu Yadav and Mulayam Singh insisted for reservations for the OBC, the Dalit and the Muslim women. Her opting for assured representation to the Muslim women turned the tide in her favour to gain a clear majority for her party though she had fought the election than as a leading partner with the Congress. The broke off her relations with the Congress party a year later and frustrated the BJP onslaught in the 2016 elections.

Her refusal to loudly chant the slogan Jai Sri Rama at the joint rally with the Prime Minister in Kolkata was a significant political gesture. She was apparently aware of heavy criticism that would follow her refusal to chant the slogan. It appears she made the political move in presence of the Prime Minister to invite heavy criticism to consolidate her vote bank. Her critics did not realize her game and indulged in abusing her for her refusal.

Most political observers and especially critics of the Mamta Bannerji see hopes of her defeat in the recent exodus of her ministers and legislators who joined the BJP before the assembly polls. They overlook that the ministers and TMC legislators who joined the BJP after resigning had come to the political arena by holding her finger. They were non entities before they were picked up by Mamta Bannerji. They are like nonpoliticians who had come to the Lok Sabha in 1980 by holding hand of Indira Gandhi. Their deserting Mamta Bannerji would make little difference to her fortune as the tradition bound voters in the majority community have no option but to vote for her as the Marxists, Communists and other left leaning parties are yet to recover from their stunning shell shock.

Ameet Shah was called the excellent political management expert after Narendra Modi gained unexpected verdict in the 2014 elections. His sweeping performance in Uttar Pradesh, 73 of 80 seats and Bihar with 34 of 40 seats was not due to management. NaMO promise to convert the Indian economy to be super with generation of jobs had broken the consolidated hold of caste and class combination, of forces that had control of power livers since1990. It cannot be achieved through by management of humans. Such political miracles happen only when political messages touch and affect human minds and their aspirations and touch their demands.

Modi had performed another miracle in the 2017 assembly election in Uttar Pradesh where Ameet Shah was not assigned any role. His achievement had come when he party had lost hopes of obtaining even second slot tells of inability of party leaders to read politics correctly. And the BJP establishment is confident o winning power in Assam to be back in the throne. Their perception is based on assumption that only party in opposition, the Congress was in shambles after the death of the former chief minister Tarun Gogai. They also believe that minority community that forms the 27 per cent of the state electorate would not cause disturbance.

The state has been facing the major problem of influx of larger influx of infiltrators from Bangladesh, more in numbers since the1971war that ended in truncation of Pakistan and creation o new nation with very weak economy and larger numbers of poverty ridden seeking enough to sustain life. They were willing to work of an kind at the price of two daily meals. They were major problems for the local Muslims, illiterates and unskilled and infiltrators were taking away their jobs but they were blamed for influx.

After the BJP formed the government in 2016 the local Muslims were twice stunned with uncertainty of their future. First shock was in the BJP government launching the citizenship survey to identify and isolate the infiltrators. The second shock was delivered by the home minister with his proposal for fresh registration of Indian citizens. They had no articulate leaders to explain that infiltrators were their greater problem than for the majority community as infiltrators were chipping away their bread but leaving not even crumbs but only grave suspicions in minds of the majority community. Every state government since emergence of Bangladesh on Eastern side but it was a problem of the centre with a little scope for the state to resolve. The union government also could do little as the Bangladesh would not take back infiltrators without documentary evidence o accept poor to add to its economic problems. They could not be forced on any other nation.

Ameet Shad had bragged in 2017 that all 23 lakh infiltrators identified and isolated by the Assam government would be dispatched back. But not a single infiltrator is accepted back. They are in a relie camp, housed, fed and health cared with education facilities for their children. There is baring burden of their upkeep for the past four years. They symbolize failure of the BJP government in the state.

The Muslims even in Assam were not terrorized by the Prime Minister but were only curious to know him better in 2016. After his actions in his second term of withdrawing rights of voter to select their immediate rulers and protectors in only majority Muslim population state Kashmir and converting it to be union territory, no one is left in doubt that without the Sangh approval, he cannot move. It can make Muslims in Assam even to a weak party inn shambles. The BJP can hope to return only on basis of sharp splittering of anti ruling party votes.