On confirmation that he would lead the BJP in the 2014 election he revealed his stance of following the Gandhian path for his regime and would fight the election on a promise for rapid paced economic development to generate jobs that every young aspired, instead on the traditional party agenda of communal approach. The electoral verdict in 2014 was not only victory of the symbol that had earlier failed 13 times in the post independence era but it was also a fatal blow to parties that relied on caste politics. Many would object my assertion the symbol Lotus got the majority. NaMo had not sought vote for the BJP. It is difficult to accept the claim that the BJP won the majority.
The verdict amazed the world as it indicated that the Indian electorate also conveyed to the world that they vote for their rulers and not for the family serfdoms by reducing the Congress strength from 206 in the previous election to mere 44 in 2014. The opposition stood demolished and widely splintered to make recovery difficult. The process to regain lost grounds is hardened as the party has no capable minds to convert it from the family serfdom to be a political entity. Restoration of the Congress supremacy is even more difficult now with nearly entire electorate becoming literate. Sacrifices by the Congress three generations ago are merely pages of history for eighty per of the electorate. Resentment within the party is merely a flash in the pan as 23 protesters are seeking only an assured post.
From the beginning after the confirmation, NaMo began to establish his distance with the party with the public assertion of his priority for toilets before the temple. He had not relegated only the main communal issues but had also introduced as the focal point the economic growth. He tried to deliver on his promise but several hindrances were built within. He shared the responsibility for the party defeats in the Delhi and the Bihar polls in 2015 though he may have known of the internal sabotage as only cause.
His proposal of the social security linked bank accounts by unorganized sections was taken as to be his attempts to shift the vote base from upper class to the deprived classes. His score in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, both states in hands of the consolidated groups of deprived classes was taken as the confirmation of this belief. His harsh step was taken as a further confirmation of this assumption as the demonetization put only urban middle class in difficulty with closure of several cottage and small units and consequent unemployment. His step could not be opposed as he had cleverly wrapped his move in garbs of higher national objectives, main issues of the party and apprehensions of the middle class. They criticize the sprawling corruption in political and administrative structure. They fear increased terrorism threats.
The political inferences of events indicate wide difference in ideas and style of governance by NaMo and the basic philosophy of the party under dictation of its mentors The Prime Minister repudiated his home minister from public platform to allay fears of the minorities that the government was seeking to convert them to be sub-citizens as getting rid of them by elimination in fire blasts, drowning them in sea or by deporting them to other lands was impossible. The home minister’s assertive statement for proposed fresh registration of citizens had agitated the minorities.
A month later the Sangh chief publicly stated at the Holi Milan rally in Ranchi that the NaMo did not enjoy support of the Sangh nor his party or the BJP members in support to him. Bhagwat’s denunciation of NaMo and his supporters confirmed the distance between them.
The speculations over the possible replacement of NaMO were rife in 2018. Names of Nitin Gadkari a favourite protégé of the Sangh chief, the ambitious home minister Amit Shah and young chief minister Uttar Pradesh were abundantly flouted in internal discussions. The victory of NaMo with 20 more members in the 2019 elections without any tangible achievement on the score board made the talk redundant for replacing NaMO. The two warring groups within continue their fight behind the curtain as peace between them seems impossible due to complete absence of meeting grounds.
Next election is still three years away. The Sangh will need to evaluate whether the loyal faction of the BJP can win a clear majority without NaMO? The outcomes of assembly elections in six days before the 2019 Lok Sabha election indicate it cannot win without NaMo. He confirmed it by delivering the miracle in the 2017 elections for the UP assembly. Without his involvement the party lost in six states. The Sangh rejects NaMo but without him leading the party cannot win.
There is additional dimension. NaMo would cross 75 years of his age in 2024. In formation of his cabinet in May 2014, he established a precedent by rejecting inclusion of all above 75 years in age and had asserted old have no place in political governance. If he decides to stay away from contesting, it can add another dimension to the political process. Most men in politics believe no personality emerged in the Indian political arena in the last decade. True. Neither another alternative political personality emerged in the ruling campus either.
In view of possibility of his disinclination to seek one more term, his presenting Nitish Kumar, Bihar chief minister, only politician he presented on his platform in seven years, assumes political significance. He has indicated his choice. It is now for the BJP to work out its future.
AUTOCRATIC NAMO
Vijay Sanghvi - 2021-03-14 11:06
The craze of and craving for individual freedom from the stone-age times has been the main cause of irritations for and defeats of autocracies and dictatorial regimes. The Prime Minister has the strong autocratic temperament though he never insisted on individuals to follow his dictums. Even as the chief minister of Gujarat for 13 years he never cared for differing view points within his circle or outside. He did not seek to correct his image through words to deny the barrage of allegations of his involvement in the communal frenzy in March 2002. He proved by his campaign for encouraging modern education to the Muslim girls that he was neither pro nor anti to any specific religion.