I begin with seeking an answer who will be the successor to lead the ruling establishment? The Prime Minister Narendra Modi will celebrate his 73rd birthday four months after the next election duly organized. He set a precedent of retiring persons from politics on their crossing 75 years of age. He can complete his third term by refusing to follow his norm or hand over power to his successor. His gesture becomes significant during the 2020 Bihar state polls of sharing his political platform only with the Bihar chief minister, no once but six times. He did not allow any other leader including the home minister Amit Shah though he is a hot name in the list of successor to NaMo under a debate in the party circles to appear on his political dais.

His gesture leads to another debate as to the party as support base for the NaMo regime. He had never given importance to the political wing of the Sangh. He had made abundantly clear within few days of endorsement to his new role for the 2014 election that his priorities were from the Gandhian path. He forced a change in the campaign basis by bringing to forefront the promise of rapid economic development. Not only he relegated the old and often failed points but also the party. His campaign posters sought the vote for the Modi government and not for the party.

He stood accused as the communalism minded person due to the communal carnage of March 2002 due to his failure as the chief minister. He was never seen to isolate like others any section. For a decade he campaigned to encourage modern education to Muslim girls. Through a legal provision to end the evil practice of oral divorce, he ensured marital certainty to poor Muslim women and thus saved many from being forced to survive on prostitution. He was paid back in the Uttar Pradesh assembly poll in 2017. He invited wrath of the Sangh chief in March 2020 by putting his foot down to attempted isolation of poor Muslims through fresh drive for registering citizens. NaMo had publicly repudiated not his home minister but also brains behind the move. It infuriated Mohan Bhagwat to an extent to publicly withdraw the Sangh support to the NaMo regime.

NaMo played his aces through the lockdown and proved Indians re with him though he had imposed ban on all activities of all kinds including social, economical, cultural and religious and imposed hardships in extreme. He had deprived them of better economic instead of improving and yet everyone stood by him. In entire 12 months of the lockdown, Amit Shah could not be caught in same picture frame with NaMo as earlier. The distance between them spoke a lot about movements within to raise level of discomfort in live political minds.

With easing of restrictions of the lock down, the Sangh chief would need to follow with the pronouncement by the Sangh chief of disassociation with the Prime Minister at the Holi Milan rally at Ranchi in March 2020. The closure of one year could be used as an excuse. But now everyone would need for the outcome of ongoing state elections in four states. There is not even semblance of contest in two southern states though the BJP made the state poll in Bengal as important political event. It assumed its victory in Assam to be foregone. The national politics may be on the lathe. The home minister has been predicting a sure win for his party with 165 seats of 230 in the state assembly. But Shah has gone wrong often enough. It appears the Bengal outcome may be used as a bashing stick against the Prime Minister. The defeat would be his but victory would be of the party. In either case it can be used to embarrass him.

The crisis may develop only if NaMo decides to fight back. The Sangh Parivar would be easily able to reestablish its dominance if NaMo surrenders. Most persons familiar with the Sangh would tend to believe that the Sangh would not go to extent of easing him out through a no confidence in parliamentary party. It has never shown its palm in public. More over NaMo never visited the Sangh office in Delhi or Nagpur for obeisance. If he is induced to do so now it would be a moral victory for the Sangh chief. Some recall the 2011 instance when he had forced the then BJP chief Nitin Gadkari to send Sharad Joshi back to the Sangh without paying a visit to Nagpur.

The Sangh establishment may be hesitant to show interest in power game though most age that Mohan Bhagwat exposed his weakness with his outburst at the public rally. Now further actions were inevitable need to assert his stature. Yet no further action would mean confession of its hesitation out of a realisation that the party did not have a capable leader to win back power without NaMo at the helm. Such indirect admission would be further damaging it reputation.

The added dimension is NaMo does not belong to the upper strata. No action now would encourage NaMo to easily ensure installation of successor of his choice. It could and surely would inflict permanent disability to the Parivar when it has to begin its centenary celebrations.

Continuation of NaMo would take India back to the era of coalition politics with no place for the upper castes in power share. It would also mean a total collapse of ideals for which the Sangh spent 95 years. One of its hardened disciples has brought the dilemma. In that sense it becomes a crucial period of three years. Tragedy is the staring end either way, action or no action.