Ostensibly the HI’s anger was directed against the long awaited ceremonial visit by the Indian PM to celebrate the 50th anniversary of freedom in Bangladesh as well as the birth centenary of the late Shiekh Mujibur Rahman. The Awami League (AL) leader had formally announced the break from Pakistan at a historic rally in March, 1970. Modi had been invited by the AL Government as a guest of honour. After all he represented India, the only country which had stood by the Bangladeshi liberation forces at all stages of their struggle against Pakistan.

As it turned out, an aghast Modi was loudly denounced as the butcher of Gujarat, the hated executioner of thousands of Muslims during the 2002 Gujarat riots. The demonstrators, whom many observers suspected to have received ideological/other support from Pakistan embassy in Dhaka, (not to mention Turkey) succeeded in their major aim: India had suffered its worst foreign policy setback in its own backyard! Playing the host, Bangladesh was both embarrassed and humiliated. Questions arose in the international media regarding major path breaking initiatives launched recently in the region, such as LookEast and BIMSTEC.

The mention of Pakistan and Turkey had not occurred merely as a speculative exercise in sections of the mass media. Between 2015 and 2021, that is between Modi’s first and second state visits to Bangladesh, there had occurred a major diplomatic reset in the Dhaka landscape. Only months ago Pakistan revived its embassy in Dhaka ending a long hiatus. Turkey too has just upgraded its diplomatic ties with Bangladesh during the last few weeks Significantly, Ankara has proposed a joint venture in arms production in Bangladesh.

Both Turkey and Pakistan have consistently condemned India for terminating the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, in different international fora. Both have attacked India’s HR record especially against Muslims. If anything, Ankara’s voice of late has been more strident than Islamabad’s. GOI has sharply ticked off Turkey for its ignorance of some basic issues of the Kashmir dispute. Within Bangladesh, the unwavering support extended by both Turkey and Pakistan to forces like the communal Jamat-e-Islami, its political ally the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and their opposition to the trials in Dhaka of the war criminals involved the genocide of 1970-71, cannot be forgotten. Clearly it is no part of the Pak-Turkish diplomatic agenda to strengthen the forces of secularism in South Asia.

There was much more to the outburst of HI’s mass anger and the anti-Indian mob violence it had sponsored. Such activities cannot be seen as the delayed manifestation of Islamic fundamentalist anger over what had happened in an Indian state almost two decades ago! Also, no Islamic fundamentalist, whether in Bangladesh or elsewhere, can deny that it was the Hindu-majority India that had sustained the cause of freedom for Bangladesh. No Muslim country/ group showed much concern about saving an unarmed civilian Bengali population from the organised genocide launched by the Pakistani army in 1970-71, a fact the HI leaders and their sponsors always gloss over.

One commentator pointedly asks, if Modi was being targeted in 2021 for his perceived sins committed two decades ago, why had the HI not protested during the Indian PM’s highly acclaimed visit to Bangladesh as India’s most popular leader back in 2015? The answer is, Modi was not its real target. Instead, it is the ruling Awami League leader and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina the Islamists are gunning for. Despite her obvious indulgence and concessions given to the HI over the years, the organisation is serving her notice that they are now powerful enough to challenge her reign. India-bashing is only part of the broader political message the HI and allied groups want to send forth in the world — it is time for a change in Bangladesh, to be defined by a more aggressive form of Islam.

Ms Hasina had pursued a two pronged strategy in allowing the newly set up HI some political space in Bangladesh: to keep the Jamat and the BNP out of power, because the HI initially opposed them. Further, by indulging the HI, she could keep Islamic fundamentalists, ever furious against the ruling Awami League’s ‘secular’ politics (in Bangladesh this means a pro-India/Hindu approach), broadly happy and in line.

‘Ms Hasina does not seem to have understood the fate of the late Indira Gandhi in India. The initial bonhomie between Mrs Gandhi and the Sikh extremists led by Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale was unprincipled. Her assassination in 1984 shows it never pays to hobnob with religious extremists to win short term political gains. Generally extremists always exact a huge price for their tactical support to any leader, even in the short term! This is now happening in Bangladesh’ says a Kolkata –based analyst.

This reasoning, sensible as it is, yet may not be correct in the context of Bangladesh, where things may turn out differently — thanks to a certain unusually aggressive trait in Ms Hasina’s persona.

Unlike some other leaders currently in power, Ms Hasina does not flinch from direct political challenges, even when these assume existential dimensions. Her administration has hit back hard against the HI and its numerous supporters. Authorities have rounded up hundreds of people from their homes and are continuing their relentless searches for more from all over the country, after the smoke has cleared away. Most are currently in jail facing non-bailable charges for the destruction of public property and other mischief.

Matters have reached a stage where the HI (which probably did not anticipate such a hard pushback) is appealing for talks with senior officials and Ministers in a bid to cool things down and secure the release of their supporters. ‘Nothing doing’, is the official response from Dhaka, ’Talk all you want but the crackdown against the HI and its associates will continue ‘. Going by experience those arrested could well be looking at long prison terms for their March mayhem. As for their leaders — the prime accused Mamunul Haque has been nabbed — they may find the going much more difficult.

As Ms Hasina has demonstrated over the years, when she goes after people she regards as ‘disruptionists’ and ‘anti nationals’, she really cracks down hard. Her strong pushback sends it own message to forces like the HI and other extreme Islamists. If they threaten the stability of the present Bangladesh regime and try to sabotage the cordial relations with Dhaka’s biggest benefactor and ally India, they would have to pay a very heavy price. (IPA Service)