Significantly, two of the surveys forecast a clean sweep by the LDF with the Front topping the 100-seat mark. Most of the other predictions would have the people believe that the LDF is set to win between 72 and 80 seats. India Today-Axis predicted 104 to 120 seats while Today’s Chanakya foresees 93 to 111 seats for the LDF. These surveys also say the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) will win 20 to 36 seats and 36 to 44 seats respectively. Republic TV-CNX says the LDF will bag 72 to 80 seats and the UDF 58 to 64 seats. The BJP-headed National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win zero to two and zero to three seats.

The prediction of Politique Marquer for India Ahead online news is that the LDF would win 72 to 80 seats, the UDF58 to 64 and the NDA one to five. According to the ABP-C Voter survey, the LDF is set to bag 71 to 77 seats, UDF 62 to 68 and NDA zero to two. Poll Diary is sure of the LDF capturing 77 to 87 seats and the UDF 51 to 61 seats. The NDA would end up getting two to three seats, says the survey. On its part, the Jan Ki Baat came up with the prediction that the LDF is winning 68 to 78 seats and the UDF 48 to 58. It also predicted that the NDA would draw a blank.

The exit poll predictions have, understandably, given a booster shot to the confidence of the ruling LDF, which had suffered a dent following reports of a last-minute burst by the UDF not only to catch up with it but also nose ahead. The exit poll predictions are also in line with the forecasts made by almost all the pre-poll surveys. Conversely, the latest surveys have sent a shiver down the UDF spine. UDF leaders, including Leader of the Opposition, Ramesh Chennithala, have rejected the dire forecasts. “We have full confidence in the verdict of the people which will be in our favour. We reject the findings of the exit polls with the contempt they deserve”. This is the burden of the Opposition song. The predictions have affected the body language of the BJP leaders as well. The BJP camp was in an upbeat mood following the campaigns by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. But they have been assailed by doubts in the wake of the latest predictions.

Of course, the Opposition leaders are putting on a brave front. They are drawing comfort from the fact that the earlier surveys predicted a decisive victory for the LDF. But the latest predictions foresee a tough and close fight. That, they claim, is indicative of the change in mood of the people towards the end of the hectic poll campaign, which saw the UDF tortoise inching ahead the LDF rabbit! UDF leaders also pin their hopes on the minorities repeating their whole-hearted support extended to the Front in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections this time too. Their solid support had enabled the UDF to win all but one of the 20 Lok Sabha seats from the State. They also reject the LDF leaders’ boast that there is no anti-incumbency factor working against the Government this time around. The UDF camp would have us believe that the anti-incumbency factor was very much there but it was a silent one. The results, they assert, would justify their contention.

On the other hand, the CPI(M) and CPI leaders are confident of winning, at the least, 80 seats in a worst-case scenario. They are basing their calculations on the reports gathered from the ground level. A major factor that would work decisively in their favour, they claim, is that there is not only no anti-incumbency factor at work in this election but there is a distinct pro-incumbency ambience that would benefit them in a big way. Add to this the excellent performance of the Government against heavy odds and the trump card Pinarayi Vijayan, who led from the front in the face of extreme adversity, earning praise not only at the national level but also in the international arena. And a runaway victory of the LDF is assured, aver the LDF leaders. Both the Chief Minister and the CPI(M) state acting secretary A Vijayaraghavan are also on record that the LDF would win more seats than the previous term. The Chief Minister will create history by winning a second consecutive term in office after helming the State for full five years if the LDF retains power.

So confident is the LDF camp that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has reportedly directed the General Administration Department(GAD) to arrange the swearing-in ceremony on Monday, May 3, a day after the counting on May 2!No time can be – and should be – lost in view of the frightening covid situation in the State, according to CPI(M) sources.

The directive has come as a surprise. It is a bit premature to do so. It also smacks of overconfidence. Normally, the winner takes a few days to assume power. For instance, in the 2016 elections, the result came on May 19 and Pinarayi Vijayan was sworn in six days later. The protocol also demands that the incumbent chief minister submit his resignation to the Governor. The winning front has to hold a meeting of the parliamentary party to elect the new leader, who will then meet the Governor to stake his claim to form the new government. If the swearing in has to take place on Monday, all these formalities will have to be completed on Sunday itself. (IPA Service)