With Sarma assuming charge of the state, a section of political analysts already have started interpreting these developments as the “end of BJP giving prominence to Assamese regionalism”. That a tribal sitting chief minister Sonowal had to give up the post for a Brahmin Sarma is seen by this section of analysts as BJP’s open endorsement of Hindutva and abandonment of Assamese regionalism.

But these are lazy arguments — as the saffron party has never been shy about its Hindutva credentials. It has been playing the Hindutva card by accommodating the local aspirations, the Assamese sentiments. Both Sonowal and Sarma are bumiputras of Assam. Also, the transition of power was smooth and Sonowal himself was gracious enough to abide by the party’s decision.

Sarma has already been known as a strongman of the BJP in the northeast — after all, he has been looking at the affairs of the party in the region by being the chairman of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a conglomeration of non-Congress north-east based regional parties. It’s a known fact that Sarma joined the BJP in 2015 when the Congress leadership of Assam — and the party high command — ignored his ambitions of becoming the chief minister after Tarun Gogoi, who was eager to push his own son Gaurav Gogoi for the post.

No one can deny the role of Sarma behind the BJP’s ascension to power in the state for the first time in the 2016 assembly polls. Although he wasn’t given the post of the chief minister, Sarma handled many important portfolios, including finance and health, in the state cabinet led by Sonowal. As a health minister, Sarma has got accolades from many corners as under his guidance the state efficiently fought against the Covid-19 virus during the first wave. This happened despite the state lacking a better healthcare system, unlike Kerala.

Apart from this, Sarma as a NEDA chairman played a crucial role in forming BJP governments in Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura and Manipur — and NDA governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland. In short, he played a significant role in BJP gaining a foothold in the region — which otherwise in the past had always been known as a Congress bastion. In Manipur, his proactiveness of securing the support of non-Congress regional parties after the fractured mandate of the 2017 assembly polls even left the Congress party with only hollow accusations like “BJP stealing the people’s mandate through money power”!

Also, during the heat of anti-CAA agitation, which propelled many political analysts to declare the "end of BJP's future in the state", Sarma campaigned that a large chunk of illegal immigrants isn’t protected by the CAA — which will grant citizenship to only 5 lakh Bengali Hindus, already living in the state. This campaign worked and helped in reducing the anti-CAA anger.

So, it was natural for BJP to reward the ambitions of Sarma, who has immensely contributed to the rise of BJP — both in Assam and the northeast. But where does this leave Sonowal, BJP’s first chief minister of Assam? Sarma played many crucial roles but Sonowal, with a clean image and a non-controversial style of working, has been undoubtedly BJP’s one of the most popular leaders in the state. Like Sarma, Sonowal too initially didn’t belong to BJP — he was in Assam Gana Parishad (AGP), now a partner of BJP. Sonowal is a known face in the state for playing a crucial role in the Supreme Court’s cancellation of the Illegal Migrants (Determinations by Tribunals) Act of 1983 brought by Indira Gandhi led Congress government — the act was perceived in the state as a pro-immigrant one. But Sonowal didn’t last long in AGP and joined BJP back in 2010 — as there were growing displeasures against AGP for abandoning the Assamese sentiments. Sonowal was given the charge of youth affairs and sports in the first Narendra Modi government, a reason that Modi has a soft corner for him. He was later projected as a chief minister face during the 2016 assembly polls — which the party won and he was given the charge to lead the state.

The return of BJP to power in Assam is also a mandate on Sonowal’s popularity — who with his non-confrontational style of working made sure that the first BJP government completes its term with a good legacy. Both Sarma and Sonowal are aware of their own abilities — BJP too knows the importance of both popular leaders. Sonowal is likely to be given an important role either in Modi’s cabinet or in the party. With state BJP president Ranjeet Kumar Das finding a place in Himanta’s cabinet, Sonowal may be nominated as the state president. Whichever role he is assigned by the BJP, Sonowal is a key asset, which the party will continue to use irrespective of the ongoing conspiracy theories in the political circles.

Let’s move to Sarma, who has many challenges to face. His government has to carry forward the legacy of the Sonowal government, which attained the tag for running a less corrupt government with being more transparent in a state like Assam, which under Congress rule faced allegations of massive corruption within the system. Along with this, the growing unemployment in the state is a major issue. In the first cabinet meeting, Sarma’s government gave priority to the issue by constituting a committee under the state’s first woman finance minister Ajanta Neog to look into the party's election promise to create 1 lakh government jobs. Although the committee is asked to submit the report within a month, the challenge is to fulfill the election promise within time with no allegations of corruption.

The major challenge, however, for Sarma’s dispensation is the rising second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the state. As the health minister in the previous government, no doubt, Sarma has the experience to deal with the crisis but it remains to be seen whether Assam under his rule can contain the second wave of the virus. Apart from that, the government has to prepare itself to battle against the annual floods, which unfortunately has become a part of Assam’s life during the rainy season. Even the BJP, despite promising of making Assam’s system efficient to control annual floods, hasn’t been able to do it.

Politically, Sarma, who comes from Lower Assam, has the challenge to strengthen the saffron roots in his own region — where BJP is comparatively weaker. This time too, the BJP led NDA was behind the Congress-led Grand Alliance in Lower Assam — barring the Bodoland areas. Administratively and politically, Sarma has many challenges — and BJP’s future in Assam and the region now depends on his ability to face these challenges. Lastly, by making Sarma the chief minister of Assam, the BJP, nationally, has given a strong message that it rewards merit. (IPA Service)