The magic growth figures are achievable as per the team of policymakers who scripted the survey. But the worrying factor is the soaring prices of essential commodities and rising costs of basic services like health, education, public transport, housing etc.
Those who believe that the GDP growth alone can solve the problem are now faced with the challenge of justifying the increase in poverty level and coexistence of price inflation, wage deflation and increased joblessness. The survey talks of per capita income increasing to 5.3% in 2009-10 from 3.7% in 2008-09. Is it the increase in the per capita income of the poor or mostly of the rich? There is no proper mechanism for estimating per capita income of the poor in this country.
The Reserve Bank of India has projected that the price inflation measured in terms of movement of wholesale price index (WPI) is likely to rise to 8.5% by the end of March, this year. There is a wide divergence in the wholesale and retail prices as shown by the WPI and the four consumer price indices (CPI). The Economic Survey has suggested little in the direction of containing the rising trend in prices which has burned the poor and the vulnerable.
Expressing concern over the food-led price inflation, the Economic Survey has observed the skewedness of price inflation - some sectors are facing huge inflation, some no inflation and some deflation which is rare in the country's history. In the period April-November, 2009 food price inflation was 12.6 and non-food price inflation -0.4%.. Food price inflation is now around 18%.
The survey has suggested differentiating price inflation rates sectorwise like in most industrialized countries where the practice is separating “core†inflation from overall inflation. The core inflation refers to inflation in sectors other than food and fuels. But this would not solve the problem. The real remedy lies in solving the problem of soaring food prices. This can only be done if the wide gap between the wholesale and retail prices is narrowed down by reining in the manipulative market forces.
The drought and floods have taken a toll on farm production. Though there are enough food stocks with the government and in the country, the prices could not be controlled. The survey has suggested that the government's release mechanism of foodstock needs improvement. The survey talks about the impact rising prices in the global as one of the causes. This is evidently a negative fallout of the so-called globalization. It prove that so-called globalization has benefited the trade manipulators and not the common man.
The Economic Survey has noted the rise in poverty level estimated by the Tendulkar Committee. The Tendulkar Committee has said that the aggregate poverty level in the country at 37.2% - rural poor amount to 41.8% and the urban poor amount to 25.7%. The National Sample Survey projects aggregate poverty level at 27.5% The Arjun Sengupta Committee has said that over 70% of the people live on below Rs 20 per day.
“Whether we take India's poverty rate to be 37.2% or 27.5%.........it is easy to argue that it is too high for a nation growing as rapidly as India and that special initiatives are needed to combat it,†the Economic Survey said.
It hopes that the Unique Identification Authority of India would be able to identify the country's poor.
The Economic Survey suggested a change in the public distribution system of subsidized foodgrains to the poor through ration shops. It has said that the poor be given food coupons to purchase food from any ration shops. The ration shops can encash these coupons in designated local banks. This would check diversion and adulteration of subsidized foodgrains. It would also be a cost cutting exercise.
Similarly for routing fertilizer subsidy the survey suggested that the farmers be given different coupons for different chemical fertilizers which they can purchase from dealers. The survey is, however, not clear how the subsidy will be based on landholdings. It would be logical to extend subsidy to all farmers based on their needs. Farmers should be left to their own to decide whether they would use organic fertilizers or chemical fertilizers.
The survey in a passing reference suggested the need for reforms in the bureaucracy which would go a long way in fine tuning government's delivery of several welfare schemes.
The stimulus package of the government has no doubt benefited the industry. The GDP growth projected is largely led by the manufacturing sector which is likely to grow at 8.9%. The services sector is also likely to grow at 8.7%, partly due to the implementation of the 6th Pay Commission Award for central government employees. The agriculture sector is likely to decline to -0.6%, being affected by drought and floods. The government's expenditure for welfare schemes has also facilitated growth. But the delivery mechanism should improve so that the benefits reach directly to the intended beneficiaries
Overall it is high time the measures be initiated to check the rising trend of prices which has burdened the common man, High cost economy will not help the poor. High cost economy has its own pitfalls. The recent global financial crisis has already shown us the nature of such pitfalls.
INDIA : ECONOMIC SURVEY 2009-10
Indian economy to grow at 7.2%, price inflation worry to remain
Survey suggests reforms in food, fertiliser subsidy and govt's delivery mechanism
ASHOK B SHARMA - 2010-02-25 17:53
New Delhi : India's Economy Survey for the year 2009-10 has said that the country's economy has come out from the impact of the global financial crisis and is expected to grow at 7.2% in the current fiscal as against 6.7% in 2008-09. It is further optimistic about achieving GDP growth of 8.5% (with a correction of +/-0.25%) in 2010-11 and a full recovery breaching the 9% mark in 2011-12.