For the Indian people, the distress is not new and many of them do not have much expectations from the Government. They are happy with minimum little requirements, if met. But this time in the second tenure of Narendra Modi, the people are seeing in their own eyes how the centre has abandoned its duty of protecting its citizens. The vulnerable sections of the population are left to fend for themselves. If the poor people survive the epidemic, it will be sheer luck for them. The health infrastructure is in a state of paralysis and two major NDA led governments of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are concealing the figures of death.

The people’s anger against the Modi government at the centre and the BJP governments in the states got reflected in the results of the local elections in all states. In Karnataka, the Congress made a clean sweep as against the ruling BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party was the front-runner, BJP’s performance was very poor. People gave their verdict in UP against the misrule of Yogi Adityanath. The Congress did well in its three ruled states Punjab, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress Chief Ministers are running their respective states well

The invincibility of the Prime Minister and his stature as a supreme leader with no alternative got a rude jolt in the latest assembly elections in West Bengal. PM took the battle between BJP and Trinamool in Bengal into a personal battle with Mamata Banerjee. Modi saw to it that he and his Home Minister Amit Shah could hold public rallies against TMC in the state according to their convenience and accordingly, despite surge in covid cases, the elections schedule was kept in eight phases. The BJP played a mind game against Mamata and focused fully on her and even on her polling day at Nandigram, PM during the polling hours announced at another meeting in Bengal that Mamata had lost and the BJP is coming to power after May 2.

Narendra Modi lost his face when the results were out. Mamata’s victory was more resounding than the 2016 assembly poll.PM was defeated hollow despite all the resources mobilized by him to dethrone Mamata from Bengal. This had its immediate impact on the rest of the country and the disillusioned citizens, have started thinking of an alternative. They include those who voted for Narendra Modi, not much for BJP.

This change in political mood has its relationship with the burgeoning anger against the Prime Minister by the people in general including the Modi loyalists who are feeling let down. This changing stance is evident from following the social media, especially Twitter in recent days showing that the Modi bhaktas are lying low and their attacks are lacking the edge. The middle class including the upper middle class, is getting increasingly disenchanted. The Opposition parties, especially the Congress have to take advantage of this vulnerability of the Prime Minister for the first time and work out strategy of both cooperation to fight the pandemic and getting ready to unseat the BJP in the coming state elections in 2022 and 2023.

In 2022, the assembly elections will be held in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Himachal and Goa. Excepting Uttar Pradesh, in all five states, Congress is the main party and it has the major responsibility to defeat the BJP. Of these six states going for elections in 2022, Punjab is ruled by the Congress and all indications suggest that the Congress will be able to retain the state comfortably taking into account the latest results of panchayat and local bodies elections. Further in Punjab, with the Akalis severing their relations with the BJP, the NDA has become weaker.

In 2023, nine states will go to elections – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Telangana, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Karnataka. Out of these, it is of prime importance for the Congress to win Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka and bid for win in north eastern states where it will have to form understanding with the anti-BJP regional parties. In Karnataka, JD(S) led by Deve Gowda can be a partner in removing BJP from power in the elections. The Congress leadership has to ensure that proper candidates are given tickets who are loyal to the party and will not be lured by the BJP as happened after the last assembly elections in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh.

In 2024, six states will go for assembly elections- Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha and. Arunachal. Most of these assembly elections might be held along with the Lok Sabha elections in April/ May 2024. So the major impact of the assembly elections outcome will be from the polls held in 2022 and 2023.

In recent days, the Modi government has attacked the principle of federalism by creating problems for all the non-BJP state governments. The Centre's action is a warning to all other non-BJP chief ministers including Jaganmohan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrasekhar Rao of Telangana and Naveen Patnaik of Odisha who are keeping safe distance from the anti-BJP opposition but afraid of growing assault of BJP in their domain. The other important issue is the use of official agencies by the centre in harassing the opposition leaders including the chief ministers in narrow political interests. The latest is the use of ED against the Kerala Government just on the eve of assembly elections and the use of CBI in arresting the two ministers of the Mamata government soon after TMC’s massive victory trouncing BJP.

In fact, the opposition should work for two stage unity to combat the BJP offensive in the coming elections. First the unity of non Congress opposition parties who are hard core anti-BJP led by the Congress. Then the unity of the chief ministers who will fight for the state powers and resist attacks against federalism. This CM group may include the chief ministers of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha also. Telangana CM is already feeling the heat of communal polarisation in his state from BJP. He might be tempted to join politically against BJP before 2024 Lok Sabha poll. Mamata Banerjee is advantageously placed in persuading these three CMs to join the joint fight against attacks by BJP government against the powers of the non-BJP state governments.

All these CMs including Naveen are fighting both the Congress and the BJP in their respective states and they will be interested in coming closer to anti-BJP opposition if the alternative gets further strengthened after the BJP disaster in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the recent assembly elections. No such fence sitting CM will like to take any risk unless the non-BJP alternative is really strong and has potential to unseat BJP in the next Lok Sabha polls. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, with her massive success in crushing BJP in her state, is more acceptable to the fence sitting CMs like Naveen Patnaik, K Chandrasekhar Rao and Jaganmohan Reddy.

The Congress as the main opposition party in the country has to follow a foolproof strategy to widen the base of the anti-BJP opposition front. The common programme and joint action to fight the pandemic have to be the core of that unity. Both Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee can collaborate in ensuring that anti-BJP votes division are kept to the minimum to facilitate maximum victory of opposition candidates. The No Vote to BJP campaign in Bengal elections can be a model in the states where the local compulsions will lead to fights among the two opposition parties, like Uttar Pradesh. The anti-BJP voters will be asked to vote for the opposition candidate who has best chance to defeat BJP.

The road map to build a solid opposition front against the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections will have twists and zigzags but once the political will is there among the major opposition parties, the constraints can be overcome. The ground is ready. The people are looking for alternative to Narendra Modi for the first time after 2014.The opposition parties have to seize it with vision and statesmanship. The task is tough but it is possible. (IPA Service)