Amid this, the Trinamool Congress, which under its supremo Mamata Banerjee registered a thumping win for the third time in West Bengal this year, once again has been trying to reorganise the party with many leaders from West Bengal, including Mamata’s nephew and party national general secretary Abhisekh Banerjee, visiting the state. Other than West Bengal, Tripura is the only Bengali majority state in the country — and Trinamool, mostly a Bengali regional party, believes that it can come to power in the 2023 state assembly polls as there is a growing anti-incumbency against BJP with the main opposition CPI(M) unable to gain from it. It is even taking the help of election strategist Prashant Kishor as it did in the Bengal polls.

True that West Bengal and Tripura’s similarity is that both are Bengali majority states. But the similarity ends there. In Tripura, tribals consist of 31% of the state’s population and 20 seats out of 60 are reserved for them. Even in many non-reserved seats, the votes of the tribals do play a role. CPI(M), which once upon a time in national politics was seen mainly as a Bengali party due to the dominance of party leaders from its once stronghold West Bengal, was successful in ruling the northeastern state for 35 years (not continuously) because of the support it received from the tribals. In Tripura, CPI(M) was even called a tribal party with Congress as a party of Bengalis. Importantly, one of the main reasons for CPI(M)’s defeat in the last state assembly polls was the desertion of the tribals.

Since the last assembly polls, tribal politics has undergone a significant change. First, the tribals abandoned their long favourite party, CPI(M), for NC Debbarma led IPFT, an ally of BJP, and within 3 years, they abandoned IPFT for royal scion Pradyut Debbarman’s Tipra Motha. Importantly, BJP has been successful too in penetrating the tribal belts while CPI(M) has been witnessing a continuous decline

It’s a fact that there is a void in the opposition space. Congress, which surprisingly emerged as the main opposition party against BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, has significantly lost its ground and is presently grappling with internal rivalries. The grand old party has become a negligible force in state politics. With Trinamool entering the political arena of the state, the party is likely to lose more voters to the Trinamool Congress. Aware of the fact, the party is targeting the voters of the Congress in Tripura to build its own base at a time when the party supremo Mamata is trying to bridge the gap with the grand old party in Delhi in the name of building an anti-BJP coalition.

Significantly, Trinamool entering into Tripura’s politics may go against the interests of the Left and benefit the BJP. One shouldn’t forget that BJP’s victory in 2018 was also due to the non-division of the anti-Left votes, which mostly went to BJP-IPFT (NC) alliance’s kitty as Congress and Trinamool completely collapsed. After the disastrous performance in 2019 polls, the CPI(M) has somehow been able to gain the status of the main opposition party from the Congress in the plain areas, where the Bengalis are in majority, as a result of the continuous political programs the party has been organising against BJP government of the state and the Centre. But now for CPI(M), there is a threat from Trinamool too in the plain areas. Alliance with Trinamool isn’t a wise option as it may only damage the Left in the same way its alliance with Congress in Bengal did.

Presently Tripura is the only state where the Left can gain power. The CPI(M) under the main opposition leader Manik Sarkar, who was the chief minister of the state for a record 20 years, is the only consistent opposition party against BJP on the roads. The youth leadership of the CPI(M) is coining slogans like “Where is my job?” Despite all of this, the fact is the party isn't gaining much. It still suffers from the anti-incumbency it generated during its 25 years long rule. More importantly, the orthodoxical nature of the party refuses to change faces and it is damaging it. Already, even within the party supporters and local leaders, there is an urge to change the leadership with the party's tribal face Jitendra Chaudhury, former state minister and Lok Sabha MP, gaining popularity.

The demands for change of leadership aren’t wrong. Manik Sarkar, Gautam Das, the party’s state secretary, and Bijan Dhar, convenor of Left Front, are all Bengalis. Not only this Bijan earlier had been the party’s state secretary too and Gautam has been criticised for his inability to expand the organisation. Most of the top faces are occupied by old faces and Manik still faces the anti-incumbency anger. Also, to rule in Tripura, a party requires support both from Bengalis and tribals. Currently, the majority of the tribals aren’t ready to vote for CPI(M) as they now see it as a party of Bengalis — and the party has to blame itself for this.

If CPI(M) has to regain its lost ground, it has to accept the mistakes it committed in the past and needs to shed its image of being an orthodox party with static ideas which have no appeal to the huge young population of the state. It has to go for a leadership change by replacing the old faces with new popular ones, who still don’t face anti-incumbency anger and have an understanding of the ground reality. Importantly, tribal faces need to be given more preference. The state CPIM) leadership has a tough task ahead in the coming months preceding 2023 assembly elections. (IPA Service)