Lalu Yadav’s relevancy in the current political scenario is growing again, that we have recently witnessed in the Bihar Vidhan Sabha elections 2020, in which his party emerged as the largest political party of the state, despite the BJP’s Hindutva agenda. The reason being the OBC politics in Bihar, which is still a forte for Lalu Yadav and his RJD. The more euphemistic name for OBC politics is the politics for ‘equality and socialism’. After meeting Mulayam Singh Yadav, where his son and SP leader Akhilesh Yadav was also present, Lalu Yadav, has tweeted “Today, the country is in dire need of equality and socialism, not capitalism and communalism”.

BJP has all along been alleged of following capitalism and communalism. Opposition will, of course, try to lay siege around the BJP’s strongholds, but the major political fight will be on OBC politics. The BJP has also been moving towards the OBC politics especially after the Bihar Vidhan Sabha elections. In the latest cabinet reshuffle Modi has included a record number of ministers from OBC, and only recently OBC students have been given reservations at all India level in medical entrance examination.

Modi’s move might have been triggered by the Bihar Vidhan Sabha election results which have clearly shown that their traditional Hindutva plank has been losing its charm, which opposition call a politics of communalism. In Bihar politics, Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (U) have been surviving on OBC politics. It is also true for Lalu Yadav, and his party RJD, having major support base among Yadavas and Muslims. In Uttar Pradesh, SP has also major support base among Yadavas and Muslims, and if they succeed in OBC politics in the state, the BJP will be in real trouble.

There are all indications that OBC politics may emerge as a rallying point for all political parties in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. BJP’s ally in Bihar, Nitish Kumar has been towing a different line that of the BJP’s on several issues including conducting a caste census for social justice. BJP wants not caste census while there is a report that Bihar may order for conducting caste based census on its own expense. Lalu Yadav’s RJD also wants to have a caste census. Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh also wants caste based census in bid to consolidate its OBC politics.

“We have common concerns and fight about farmers, inequality, the poor and the unemployed,” said Lalu Yadav in his tweet after meeting Mulayam Singh Yadav. It is also an open secret that his concern for ‘inequality’ is actually his concern for OBC politics. The concern for the poor and unemployed is a general concern for all communities irrespective of their caste or religion. Farmers have been specifically mentioned keeping eye of farmers’ agitation against Modi’s three farm laws that seek to bring corporate to the farm sector. Farmer’s agitation has completed almost eight and half months now in which a large number of farmers from western Uttar Pradesh are participating, both at sit-in protest on Delhi borders and also in all over Uttar Pradesh. The agitating farmers have also decided to campaign against the BJP during the Vidhan Sabha election in the state scheduled to be held early next year.

Not only with Mulayam Singh Yadav or his son Akhilesh Yadav, Lalu Yadav is busy in meeting other political personalities too, and also sending emissaries to leaders in opposition. He has met NCP chief Sharad Pawar and also senior SP leader Ramgopal Yadav. After a recent split in LJP, Lalu Yadav sent an RJD leader Shyam Rajak to Chirag Paswan, the son of Ram Vilas Paswan, the founder of LJP, with a message that he should ally with RJD. In OBC politics, BJP and its ally JD(U) in Bihar are playing their own cards against each other, and both may end in losing their considerable vote bank to Lalu Yadav’s RJD which has been championing the OBC politics in Bihar for over three decades, which overwhelming support from Yadavs and Muslims.

There is a similar situation in Uttar Pradesh. There will be direct fight between the BJP and SP. With death of RLD leader Ajit Singh, the party’s support base among farmers is likely to shift to SP, because they are against the BJP on account of Modi’s three controversial farm laws. If this happens BJP will be the greatest looser in Western Uttar Pradesh that has been a traditional forte of RLD. Mayawati’s BSP is in very bad shape, and therefore greater part of its Muslim and SC vote bank may shift towards SP. Thus the fight will be almost direct between BJP and SP. If OBC’s other than Yadavs prefer the traditional OBC champion SP to the newly converting OBC champion Modi, the BJP will greatly suffer, more so because Yogi Adityanath (born Khatriya) is perceived against Brahmins, and SCs and OBCs also don’t love him.

The political battleground Uttar Pradesh is thus likely to see a fierce battle between the SP and BJP, and if Lalu’s formula proves successful, it may change the political narrative in the country. Even if it does not succeed, all indications are pointing towards Lalu Yadav’s emerging importance in Opposition politics in India. (IPA Service)