August 9 is observed in the country as Quit India Day, as on this day in 1942, Quit India Movement had begun against the British Rule that ultimately resulted into the English quitting India making her independent. It was in the similar fashion, farmers agitating against Modi’s three controversial farm laws, had decided last month to launch a nationwide ‘Modi Gaddi Chhodo’ movement.

Farmers’ agitation is running into the 9th month. It was begun on November 26 last year. Eleven round of talks between the Modi government and the farmers under the leadership of Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) of over 40 farmers’ unions failed to yield any compromise, since both the parties remained to stuck to their stance – the Centre insisting on implementing the controversial farm laws and farmers on their demand to repeal them. Since the eleventh round of talks failed on January 22, there have been no initiatives from the Centre for talks, while farmers are not ready to call off their agitation until the three laws are repealed.

Farmers have been systematically escalating their agitation in phased manner in various ways while keeping themselves united and joining Central Trade Unions and other unions of the working class, such as Bank or Insurance employees unions. While continuing their sit-in protest at three Delhi borders – Singhu, Tikri, and Ghaziabad, they protested in all states, district, and block headquarters of the country. They organized demonstrations even in numerous villages, apart from giving call for all India blockade or Bharat Band. Currently Farmers’ Parliament is in session at Jantar Manther, only few hundred metres from the Parliament of India which is also in session, and both are to end on August 13.

A twist in the agitation has come in the meantime. Only a few days before the beginning of the Monsoon Session of the Parliament of India last month, the farmers under the banner of All India Kisan Sabha had assembled at Lucknow, the capital city of Uttar Pradesh, and decided to launch ‘Modi Gaddi Chhodo’ movement from August 9. More than 30 farmer’s organizations, enjoying support of other 10 organizations had participated there. State level coordination committees were soon formed to coordinate farmers’ agitation and rallies across the states in the country, and several others are to come at districts and blocks level in the next few months. The idea was to take the farmers’ agitation to the tehsil and village level.

Farmers’ agitation has already impacted the national politics, and it seems, we have reached at a point from where no political party can afford to ignore the farmers’ agitation and their issues. We have seen how political parties in opposition have raised farmers’ issues in the current Monsoon Session of the Parliament leading to several disruptions in both the Houses – the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha. With the launch of ‘Modi Gaddi Chhodo’ movement from today, it is most likely to impact the politics at the ground level as well.

Though the farmers’ agitation is still apolitical, the farmers unions have not only been asking for political support for their demand from all opposition political parties, but also their leaders had given call to the farmers for not voting for the BJP in the recent Vidhan Sabha elections held in five states including West Bengal where the BJP had a high stake and hoping to oust Mamata’s TMC from the power but failed.

Since a large number of agitating farmers are from Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, ‘Modi Gaddi Chhodo’ movement is likely to impact the politics of these states the most. Hundreds of farmers have died during their agitation in over last eight months, which the farmer community cannot be made to forget easily.

We have already seen how the anger of farmers impacted the local body elections in Punjab. Angry farmers had announced that they would welcome the BJP candidates with wreath of shoes if they come in their area to campaign for their election, following which the BJP candidates could not even campaign. After the enactment of Modi’s three controversial farm laws, the BJP’s traditional ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has deserted the NDA, and campaigning for the cause of farmers. The other two major political players in Punjab are the ruling INC and the opposition political party AAP, and both of them are supporting the farmer’s cause. In means, politics in the state could heavily be impacted by the farmers’ movement.

In Uttar Pradesh, after the demise of RLD leader Ajit Singh, a vacuum is being felt in farmer politics in western Uttar Pradesh. It is precisely the reason from where a large number of farmers have been participating in the sit-in protest at Ghazipur border of Delhi. It the present scenario, RLD support base among farmers is likely to shift, but at the same time to move far away from the BJP, first because farmers are against Modi’s three farm laws, and secondly, because ‘Modi Gaddi Chhodo’ movement of farmers may become stronger in the coming months.

Moreover, farmers of other regions of the state have also been disillusioned from Adityanath Yogi’s rule and are increasingly becoming restive for several reasons including deteriorating law and order situation, mishandling of COVID-19, and providing only little financial relief. OBC politics in the state is becoming stronger in which the BJP cannot match the SP led by Akhilesh Yadav. SP is also trying to champion the cause of the farmers which also includes large number of OBCs. The BJP ally Apna Dal has also jumped into OBC politics and demanding caste census before Vidhan Sabha election, while the BJP is not willing to conduct any caste census at all. Uttar Pradesh Congress has also launched ‘BJP Gaddi Chhodo’ movement today in the state.

The BJP had no other option, but to try its traditional Hindu plank once again during the Vidhan Sabha election. If BJP suffers in the Vidhan Sabha election in 2022, it would boost the morale of the opposition both in the state and in the country. Uttar Pradesh sends 80 seats in the Lok Sabha out of which 62 were won by the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election, and therefore its going down in the state will adversely impact the BJPs prospect in Lok Sabha election 2024. (IPA Service)