Political parties have realised the importance of the issues agitating the farmers in deciding the outcome of the state assembly elections as well as local body polls ahead of the most crucial electoral battle of 2024. The ruling party is already facing the heat and has been forced to come up with strategies to limit, if not avert altogether, the potential threat on account of the discontent.

The repercussions are already visible in Haryana, where elections to the panchayat bodies would be due shortly. Opposition parties are seeking to make the most political capital out of the farmers’ ire against the saffron party, while the local leaders of BJP are themselves wary of facing the electorate on the party ticket. Many of them are said to be planning to contest as independent candidates to escape a backlash.

The most dominant opinion within the agitation leadership is to avoid getting identified with any particular political party as they feel it would weaken the agitation. But a vociferous section within the leadership wants the agitation to acquire a political colour and use it as an opportunity to make a strong political foray and make their voice heard where and when it matters.

Punjab farmers leader B S Chaduni has even announced his ‘Mission Punjab’ to advance the cause of farmers as a distinct political stream and has declared his intention to fight the assembly elections. He has been touring the state to build momentum for such a choice as there is widespread feeling that the farmers need more bargaining power if they are to succeed in getting their demands accepted.

At a recent visit to Shaheed Bhagat Singh’s village, he gave a call to the farmers to actively engage in electoral politics, which alone according to him can get them justice. He has also been touring Haryana with the same agenda and trying to drum up support for the idea. But his aggressive posturing has invited disapproval from the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, an umbrella organisation of farmers union agitating against the Modi government’s controversial farm laws as it believes that Chaduni’s personal ambitions do not necessarily match the aspirations of the unions.

Some names have also cropped up as potential chief minister candidates on behalf of the farmers in the Punjab assembly elections. Balbir Singh Rajewal is one such name, with posters appearing with his picture as the chief ministerial face, although he has himself described the posters as the handiwork of mischief makers, trying to malign his name.

These may be isolated cases, but provide clues as to what exactly is happening within the agitation leadership in terms of a more aggressive political approach. On their part, the political parties are eager to climb on the bandwagon of farmers agitation, especially in view of the approaching elections, but the unions are well aware of the pitfalls in being identified with any particular party.

At the same time, there is no denying the fact that the Modi government’s farm laws, widely perceived to be in favour of corporates as opposed to the interests of the farmers, irrespective of all the persuasive arguments put out by the government, will be central to the grassroots level campaign in the approaching elections, especially in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. There are, of course, other important issues such as the government’s stonewalling of investigations into the Pegasus and Rafale scandals, but the farmers agitation has much stronger emotional connect when it comes to the villages and the predominantly agrarian electorate of the two crucial north Indian states. And this means that the saffron party may not be in the best shape to counter the discontent.

In Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath with his saffron politics, is facing a formidable challenge, the farmers’ discontent promises to be a hard nut to crack for BJP. The party has worked out a counter strategy to reach out to the farmers through an outreach plan, comprising ‘kisan panchayat’, ‘kisan sampark yatra’ and ‘kisan choupals’, particularly in western UP, where the farmers agitation has been more intense. But it remains to be seen how effectively the party can win over the farmers to its side. (IPA Service)