And so the Chinese propaganda machinery started telling the Chinese thereafter that Beijing had to be prepared to diplomatically recognise the Taliban regime as the hard line Islamist movement was gaining territory at breakneck speed in Afghanistan and turn into as a legitimate regime, wrote Reuters’ Yew Lun Tian. It is quite likely that the Taliban leader might have assured the Chinese foreign minister of the return of Taliban era in Kabul. China might have dangled promises of economic aid and investment to a post-war Afghanistan as a carrot to the Taliban boss once both sides stopped fighting. But the global leaders never imagined that the total victory was so near. The US intelligence predicted that it might take 90 days for the fall of Kabul but it happened within four days.

The insurgents captured much of northern, western and southern Afghanistan in a breakneck offensive less than three weeks before the scheduled withdrawal of US last troops. The entire Logar province, just south of the capital, Kabul, was captured by the Taliban who detained local officials, revealed Hoda Ahmadi, a lawmaker of Logar. She said the Taliban reached the Char Asyab district, just 11 kilometers (7 miles) south of Kabul. The Taliban caused the fall of the capital of Paktika, bordering Pakistan, according to Khalid Asad, another lawmaker, stating further that fighting broke out in Sharana but ended after local elders intervened to negotiate a pullout.

State media published at least two analytical stories last week highlighting that Afghanistan had become the "graveyard of empires" and suggesting that China not be mired in the "Great Game", with a message that China harbours neither the intentions of sending troops into Afghanistan nor the illusion that it can fill the power vacuum left by the USA.

The Taliban take China into confidence for one crucial reason. Unlike Russia or the USA, China had never battled against the Taliban although 1996 and 2001 when the Taliban were in power, China had suspended relations with Afghanistan and withdrawn its diplomats in 1993 due to outbreak of the civil war. Beijing holds on to pragmatism, bluntly speaking business interests. In December 2020, Beijing got into hot water when a Chinese espionage ring was nabbed in Kabul hunting down Uighur Muslims, using the Haqqani network, a terrorist outfit, associated with the Taliban.

Ghani government promptly recalibrated its diplomatic and economic relationship with China. The oil and gas contract with China was terminated forthwith and sought to renegotiate the terms of a massive mining concession that was almost dormant for a decade. With the power in Kabul, turned exactly upside down, Beijing is hopeful of reviving the mining lease in mutually advantageous terms.

Indian diplomacy, seasoned western experts believe, is towards nadir. A Carnegie India chapter in a study cautioned months back that India’s involvement might be risky. India ought to update its priorities to prepare for this change. Strategic exponents repeatedly did spell out that Indian diplomats should not rule out the probability that sections of the Taliban might play a larger role in Afghan politics and that would go against Indian interests . Indian assets in Afghanistan have been targeted by the Haqqani group that might be in the way of India’s economic and technological investments in bilateral interests.

So New Delhi should have created options for keeping the Taliban in good humour. But India’s external affairs ministry biggies took the matter casually, never caring to ponder that any lapse there would mean that not to reposition its priorities might lead to a diplomatic disaster. New Delhi had a prolonged breathing space as the US-Taliban agreement was signed on 29 February, 2020.

Pakistan too is no headache-free. Several hundred Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan prisoners in Afghanistan were released from Afghan jails by the Taliban including its hard-core militant leaders banned by Pakistan. . This is implicitly a rebuff to Islamabad as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was behind the bar in Pakistan for eight years after 9/11.

The US Embassy in Kabul directed its staff to destroy sensitive documents as well as other material that could be used as propaganda. Diplomats were directed to destroy computers and other sensitive documents before they leave, as well as data-x-items featuring the American flag, embassy logos and other articles that “could be misused in propaganda efforts, The missive is important as it was issued on the eve of the Taliban onslaught threatened to topple the Ghani government. Significantly, the directive was communicated a day after the Pentagon announced sending of 3,000 US troops to Afghanistan to evacuate some U.S. embassy personnel from Kabul, barring “a core diplomatic presence”. (IPA Service)