It is by no means a small achievement. But it must lead to a reality check on the enormity of the task ahead. A total number of over 60 crore doses of vaccine have been given since the vaccination drive was launched in January. This means it took 224 days to reach here and covers only about 25 percent of the required number of jabs, which suggests that we have a long way to go to achieve universal vaccinations, the only known option to deal with the pandemic. Even if we are able to administer one crore doses per day continuously, it will take the better part of the new year to complete the task.

In comparison to countries such as US and UK, both of which have achieved much progress in vaccinating their populations, India’s coverage remains low, although in terms of absolute numbers the country is very close to the leaders. The US has fully vaccinated 172 million people while India has achieved 136 million, with at least one dose. But China has already administered over two billion shots.

Most significantly, there are serious issues with the second dose of the vaccine. According to the reply to an RTI query, 3.86 crore people did not get their second dose of anti-Covid vaccines within the stipulated period. Medical experts suggest that this could have contributed to the grim situation in states like Kerala, where the virus is spreading at an unprecedented pace. It is also debatable whether the 84-day gap recommended between the first and second doses in the case of Covishield was on the basis of optimum efficacy or the availability.

The vaccines not only helps control the pandemic, but serve as a shot to the economy, which has shown signs of recovery coinciding with the progress of vaccination. For instance, with the increased reach of the vaccination programme and the release of pent-up demand following the easing of lockdown restrictions, several economic indicators last month showed continued signs of recovery, prompting rating agencies to even upgrade their projections. High-frequency indicators such as E-Way bill, fuel demand, automobile sales, labour participation rate have all witnessed month-on-month growth.

With the supply side situation improving in the wake of easing of restrictions, there is need for matching improvement in the demand, which is not happening in proportion, which is the biggest problem the economy is facing currently. There has indeed been some pick-up, but it is not enough to fire all the engines of growth. There is need to increase consumption levels, but this is possible only if people have their means of livelihood revived.

There are, of course green shoots, here and there. The behaviour of the gold market, in a way, is a true reflection of market confidence, as gold purchases do not constitute an essential item as it has more to do with a sense of wellbeing. World Gold Council reports anecdotal evidence suggesting that gold demand is relatively strong. Large organised retailers with a national presence reported a stronger recovery in demand from metros, which had been badly impacted during the first wave of the pandemic last year.

Retail demand improved as states eased lockdown restrictions and the economy reopened, reflecting in a rebound in the official import of gold. Indian official gold imports totalled 72.3 tonnes in July 2021, which was more than double the 29.7 tonnes in July 2020 and more than triple the 15.8 tonnes in June 2021. According to the council, a total of nine banks, nominated agencies and exporters imported 53.6 tonnes of bullion and 18 refineries imported an equivalent 18.7 tonnes of fine gold content.

The pick-up in the vaccination numbers should add to the market impetus, but ultimately it will depend on how efficiently the Centre manages the supply of doses. There is need for a quantum jump in the performance on this front, as supply bottlenecks have been contributing to a lot of inefficiencies in delivery logistics as well as administration of the doses, particularly in the case of the second dose. (IPA Service)