First, the Government has given a handle to the Opposition by increasing the prices of petrol and diesel in the budget. There is no doubt that parties of different hues have taken a common stand on the price hike and the increasing food price inflation. For the first time in parliamentary history, even as the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee repeatedly told them that presentation of the budget was a constitutional requirement, the opposition parties walked out noisily.

The problem for the Congress is to defend itself on two fronts. One from the opposition, and the other from its own allies like the Trinamool Congress and the DMK. Together, these two have almost 39 seats and for the passage of any bill these votes are required. There are murmurs from even within the Congress as the lawmakers are afraid to face the wrath of the public in their constituencies.

There is the danger signal from the joint front between the TMC and the DMK. The relationship between the TMC and the Congress has seen high and low although they had fought the Lok Sabha elections together. The local leaders feel that the TMC chief Mamata Banerjee is highly autocratic and ignores the local Congress leaders. The Railway Minister, on the other hand, thinks that her party is the senior partner and due respect should be given to her. She is focussed on the 2011 Assembly elections and her every action revolves around that. With the CPI -M losing ground gradually, her main aim is to capture the Writers Building. Her own Railway budget and opposition to the petrol price hike in the budget are seen as positioning herself for the polls. Didi believes in populist measures. Did she not give trouble to Vajpayee also when she was a minister in his government earlier? The Congress does not know how to deal with the mercurial Trinamool leader and merely reacts.

As for the DMK, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi is in the process of sorting out the succession battle within his family. He will be 85 on June 3, 2010 and has already announced that he will retire on that day. Although the shocked party members do not want to believe it, the shock treatment has not gone well within his family. In the next two or three months, the DMK patriarch has to make sure that everything goes smoothly. Most of the positioning of the DMK depends on how the AIADMK looks at any issue.

Another danger signal has come from the coming together of the three Yadav leaders, Mulayam Singh (SP), Lalu Prasad (RJD) and Sharad Yadav (JD-U). They have joined hands to put the government on the mat. There is a danger that on the women's reservation bill and other issues like the fertilizer subsidy cut and price rise they can combine. After all, they were together earlier and it does not take much time to come together on issues. SP, RJD and the BSP are supporting the UPA and together they command 47 votes.

The BJP has cleverly chalked out its floor strategy after Arun Jaitley and Sushma Sushma Swaraj became the leaders of Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha respectively. The first thing is to have a common floor strategy in both the houses. They have quietly been in touch with the left parties and others. Knowing very well that if the BJP is in the forefront on any issue the others will not back it on the ground it is a communal party, the left would be allowed to lead the attack on the floor. What better way than to join the others to embarrass the government, which is really what the BJP wants?

The opposition is all set for a showdown inside and outside Parliament. Ranging from left to right, they are getting ready to put the government on the mat. The left and other secular parties will have a separate strategy but the aim is to embarrass the government. The BJP is planning to collect five million signatures and also hold a historic rally on April 21. State-level demonstrations are also being planned. The left too is not lagging behind as it is planning to have demonstrations on March 12. Kerala and West Bengal have already launched protests.

The Congress should be vigilant and ensure that business does not suffer on account of the belligerency of the opposition or even its own allies. The first thing is to ensure that the allies are on board on every issue. Before taking any decision the allies should be consulted. Second, instead of alienating the opposition, the Government managers should reach out to them. No doubt, the Congress had seen a volatile opposition during the Bofors days but the composition of both the Houses today needs a consensus rather than a confrontational approach. The Government should field tactful managers to deal with the opposition and adopt a give-and-take attitude for smooth passage of the budget as well as other bills. After all, people expect their representatives to speak for them and adjournments and walkouts are not the answer. (IPA Service)