One is the softening of the Government's stand on the jailed ULFA leaders, to enable them, first, to discuss among themselves and evolve their stand on the peace talks and then the actual opening of the talks either in Dispur or in New Delhi. As a first step, two of them, Mr. Pradeep Gogoi, vice-chairman, and Mr. Mithinga Daimary, publicity secretary, have been allowed to be released by the special TADA court, as the Government decided not to oppose their bail applications. Incidentally, Mr. Daimary is not a tribal as his surname suggests. He is an Assamese whose real name is Deepak Das.

The other positive development is the visible thaw in the Indo-Myanmar relations and what seems now to be a distinct possibility of a joint offensive by the two countries against the various rebel groups, ULFA being the fulcrum of them all. The offensive is expected to begin in a couple of months' time.

Once this really gets under way, the insurgents will be deprived of their last sanctuary and safe haven. The Bhutan Government drove out the ULFA and closed down its camps in December, 2003. In December last year, the Bangladesh Government cracked down on the rebels and handed over ULFA chairman Mr. Paresh Barua and his top aides to India. The loss of Myanmar will finally break their back. The ULFA, the NSCN(K) and the People's Liberation Front of Manipur are known to be running camps in western Myanmar, as also smaller groups like the Kukis and Zomis, though the exact strength of their cadre is not known.

Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai visited Naypiydaw (the new capital, shifted from Yangon in 2005) on a three-day visit in January. The discussion centered on organising and coordinating joint action against the rebels. Earlier, in October last year, Army chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor had also paid a visit to explore possibilities of enhanced military cooperation. The talks were cordial.

India's relations with Myanmar had cooled off after India made known her sympathy for the movement to restore democracy in the country ruled by the military junta. In fact, while Myanmar always formally assured India to extend all help in curbing insurgent activities in the border areas, not much was actually done on the ground. Rather, the junta used the insurgency issue to put political pressure on India to come to terms with it.

But India's new Look East policy - initiated during Mr. P. V. Narasimha Rao's regime but given an impetus by the NDA Government - together with her concern with the growing Chinese influence in Myanmar, led to a reappraisal of India's policy vis-à-vis her immediate eastern neighbour.

In 2006, India reportedly made a concrete offer to deliver to Myanmar some military hardware including radars and radio communications system. Some Myanmarese Army personnel also visited Indian defence academies. Some tanks, armoured personnel carriers, 105 mm guns, mortars and helicopters were believed to have been delivered without any fanfare. But this was quietly abandoned soon afterwards when some Western powers objected because some of the Indian hardware contained parts supplied by them. These countries had imposed an arms embargo on Myanmar.

Meanwhile, cooperation on the economic front has already begun. In 2008, India signed four agreements with Myanmar, for facilitating greater investment flow between the two countries, laying power transmission lines and easing border trade. Last month, the Union Cabinet approved fresh investments in Myanmar's oil and gas industry. The ONGC is going to invest $832.5 million in oil exploration while the Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) will spend $502.6 million for transport of oil and gas.

Myanmar's natural gas reserves, tenth largest in the world, are estimated at over 90 trillion cubic feet. The exploitation of this gas will be immensely beneficial for the economic development of our north-eastern States. Already, China is vigorously building an 1100 km long gas pipeline from Myanmar. Other countries like Korea are also interested in getting Myanmar gas.

Cooperation between the two countries is essential not only for anti-insurgency operations, but also in the long-term strategic interest of India. China has made no secret of her intention to balkanise India into 20 to 30 nation states, with the active help of all insurgent and secessionist forces in the country, from the north-east to the south. To meet this challenge to her security and sovereignty, India has to ensure that all her neighbours remain dependable allies.

At the moment, however, the people of Assam are anxiously waiting for the outcome of the imminent peace talks. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and Home Minister P. Chidambaram have already discussed the modalities for the talks. Politics is the art of the possible. If Laldenga, who once raised the banner of revolt against India, could give up arms, sign a peace accord, take part in the elections and eventually become the Chief Minister of Mizoram, will it be too much to expect that by the time the State Assembly elections in Assam become due next year, the ULFA will accept the Constitution, join the political mainstream and make a bid for power through the electoral process? (IPA Service)