The result shows the joint strength of the JD(U) and the BJP. For both the seats the JD(U) candidate polled 46.22 per cent of votes while the RJD alone polled 40.72 per cent. RJD’s performance is thus encouraging though the party has lost. It clearly shows that JD(U) alone is weaker than the RJD, but won with the help of BJP’s votes, meaning thereby, the BJP or JD(U) need to continue their alliance. Since INC has independently been able to poll merely 3.06 per cent of votes, both the RJD and INC need to form alliance again if they want to give a tough fight to the NDA. By gaining 3.65 per cent of votes, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJPRV) has shown that it is still a political force to reckon with. Here lies the worry for NDA in case the opposition is united.

Take the Kusheshwar Asthan Vidhan Sabha constituency, where JD(U) candidate won by getting 45.72 per cent of votes as against 36.02 per cent bagged by RJD. However, INC was able to get 4.28 per cent, and LJP(RV) 4.29 per cent. Had there been an opposition alliance, the NDA candidate would have lost. It should be noted that in the 2020 general election the JD(U) candidate had bagged 39.55 per cent of votes while this time INC as partner in alliance with RJD had got 34.26 per cent of votes. This time without INC in alliance, RJD alone exceeded its vote share. It is clear that this seat is going to witness tough fight between the RJD and JD(U) and hence could be flagged as such.

The voter turnout in Kusheshwar Asthan was 54.42 per cent in the general election 2020, which returned a reduced vote percentage of only 39.55 per cent for JD(U). This time the turnout was only 49 per cent. It shows that general voters of this constituency were not very keen on the by-election since they consider by-elections to be generally dominated by the ruling parties or combines taking advantage of being in power. The situation in any general election happens to be different, and increase in voter turnout may upset the apple cart of the rulers. It is just another cause of concern for JD(U).

In the bypoll of Tarapur Vidhan Sabha, the turnout was only 50 per cent. In the general election 2020, it was 55 per cent. JD(U) was able to get only 36.93 per cent of votes, while RJD had bagged 32.8 per cent. In the by-election now, their percentage of vote share was 46.62 and 44.35 respectively. JD(U)’s vote share includes BJP’s votes, and RJD’s vote share is their own. Rise of the RJD is indeed spectacular. LJP(RV) candidate also got 3.16 per cent while the INC candidate was able to get 2.12 per cent of votes. Had there been an opposition alliance, JD(U) would have lost this seat.

Both the seats were held by JD(U) and therefore retaining them at any cost was important to show their good governance and people in their support. Therefore, the ruling combine, both the JD(U) and the BJP, were working together and leaving no stone unturned. On the other hand, the RJD was overconfident on exposing the misrule of NDA and thereby getting sufficient public support to wrest the seats from JD(U). RJD had announced their candidates on their own without taking its former Gathbandhan partner INC in confidence. It irked the INC, and they also put their candidates in both the seats.

The bypoll result has also revealed that Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) has still a support base in both the constituencies even after the recent split in the party. LJP had got 6.45 per cent of votes in the general election 2020 in Tarapur. Since it got 3.16 per cent of votes this time, it can be concluded that almost half of the LJP’s support base is with Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV). In Kusheshwar Asthan LJP’s vote share was 9.79 per cent in 2020, and this time Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) could retain 4.29 per cent of votes. It shows that Chirag Paswan is not finished even after the split in LJP. He is still a political force, and therefore important in permutations and combinations of future political alliance in the state. Since the splinter group is with the BJP, and JD(U) has antagonized him, the opposition RJD must make not only alliance with him but also restore the Gathbandhan with INC. The byelection results show that only the opposition alliance can defeat NDA in Bihar. The results also show that the JD(U) and the BJP cannot part ways from each other for now, despite their efforts to break into each other’s support base, namely the OBC. (IPA Service)