The Achilles heel of Pakistan is its dependence on King Cotton related exports and remittances from the Gulf to generate foreign exchange inflows. In this sense Pakistan is simply not competitive in the high tech, globalised world economy since textiles/manpower were its primary exports as far back as the 1970's. A sovereign debt of $120 billion and a dismal track record of 13 successive IMF programmes since General Zia's C130 PAK WON plane crashed in the skies above southern Punjab in August 1988.

The current crisis is magnified by the fact that Brent crude has risen 60% in 2021 and the threat of Congressional economic sanctions/an exodus of dollars to Afghanistan are twin swords of Damocles over the rupee. An FATF downgrade to its blacklist, where Iran and North Korea happily reside and Erdogan's Turkey may soon move in will also pressure the PKR. With US CPI above 4% and the Federal Reserve on the eve of an epic monetary tightening, the gradient of the Pakistani rupee's fall will only get steeper.

Global rating agency Fitch's target of 180 is far too conservative. In retrospect, it was a terrible idea for Imran Khan to act as the global cheerleader for the odious Taliban's resurgence in Kabul. The Biden White House has made it clear that it does not want any deep ties with Pakistan (only Pinky Pirni can get her djinns to force Joe Biden to even make a phone call to her heartbroken Kaptaan hubby) even as it upgrades its strategic relationship with India, a key pawn on the geopolitical chessboard amid the new Cold War with China.

Tighter US monetary policy alone and Pakistan's overheated economy, even Shaukat Tarin admitted it, means that it is entirely possible the PKR could lose 25% in the next 12 months, as it has lost 12% since May alone. Inflation in Pakistan is structural and the hikes in petrol prices/power tariffs will only bring misery to its impoverished masses even as the captains and kings in Islamabad and business oligarchs in Karachi and Lahore continue to party within the walls of their well guarded Versailles chateaux.

Yet sooner or later, the shirtless ones sans culotte will storm the palaces of Versailles. This is the real reason the Tehreek Labaik liberals want to kick out the French Ambassador for exporting smelly cheese to the Land of the Pure. Sadly, to heed the lessons of history, it is necessary to know a bit of history. May God save the beautiful people of Pakistan from the callous greed and power lust of their friends not masters. (IPA Service)