Persistent increase in the expenditure on the nuclear arms, despite the UNOs passing Treaty Prohibiting Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which has declared nuclear weapons illegal and has called for their complete abolition, is a cause of concern. This should have been one of the main focuses of the debate, but is not seen on the top of the list.

A study “Climate Consequences of Regional Nuclear War” conducted by Ira Helfand former co-president, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), and Alan Robock from the Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, USA has pointed out that the present nuclear weapons, numbering about 17,000 on earth pose a serious risk to all life forms. According to their study, a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan using 100 Hiroshima sized nuclear bombs will put over two billion people at risk. Such a war would kill up to 20 million people outright as major cities of the subcontinent would be destroyed and it would blanket much of South Asia with radioactive fallout. But the global consequences are even more alarming. Soot and debris injected into the atmosphere from the explosions and resulting fires would block sunlight from reaching the earth, producing an average surface cooling of -1.25ºC that would last for several years. Even 10 years out, there would be a persistent average surface cooling of -0.5ºC. This will reduce rainfall globally by 10%.

The study further cautions that in such situations there will be reduction in crop yields. The food shortage will lead to Increases in food prices further affecting the already malnourished poor people across the globe. There are more than one billion people in the world whose daily caloric intake falls below these minimum requirements. Each year some five million children in this group starve to death. A small further decline in available food would put this entire group at risk. A number of factors suggest that the accessible food for those who are already malnourished would decline dramatically. Many counties which depend on import of food will be equally affected. Given these conditions, even a modest, sudden decline in agricultural production could trigger massive famine. If famine conditions persisted for a year or more, it seems reasonable to fear that the total global death toll in the Global South could exceed one billion from starvation alone.

There is a very high likelihood that famine on this scale would lead to major epidemics of infectious diseases. Illnesses such as plague, which have not been prevalent in recent years, might again become major health threats.

According to the estimates in the study, the food crisis is likely to trigger internal and external conflicts. In such situation the use of nuclear weapons between the two nuclear super powers, the United States and Russia, cannot be ruled out as long as these weapons exist. Huge swaths of both countries would be blanketed by radioactive fallout and their industrial, transportation, and communication infrastructures would be destroyed. Most Americans and Russians would die in the succeeding months from radiation sickness, epidemic disease, exposure and starvation.

The lesson here is that the entire world really is targeted by the weapons of the nuclear-armed states, even if the missiles themselves are not pointed at our cities. Working to end this threat is not only responsible global citizenship, it is a vital interest for everyone on earth.

The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) and the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) have highlighted this issue and tried to impress upon the participating parties in the Glasgow summit to bring this on top of the list and ask all nuclear weapons possessing countries to join the Treaty Prohibiting Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and abolish these weapons for good. This is in our hand. Huge expenditure on nuclear weapons is costing several welfare needs of our people. It is unfortunate that the narrative to the effect is not being given due importance including in our country. It is the duty of all peace loving citizens to raise the voice. The participating parties at the COP-26 should debate this issue seriously as a priority. (IPA Service)