BJP insiders are confident that belated as it is, the decision to return to the agitational path against the state government on such a sensitive issue will achieve several objectives at one go. A major advantage is that the resumption of meaningful political activity in a state, where the BJP has been losing mass support at an alarming rate since 2019, should help to revivify drooping cadre morale. For the past few months, the biggest opposition party in Bengal has seen nothing but mudslinging and incessant wrangling among state leaders, even as a steady stream of old workers and new high profile recruits from the TMC quit in sheer frustration.

Observers feel that Majumdar after his steady but encouraging start as president of the most faction-ridden BJP unit in India, stands poised to lead what could be the beginning of a political recovery. Since replacing Dilip Ghosh as president, Majumdar has not put a foot wrong: unlike Ghosh, it is not for him to make bizarre public comments and statements that left even BJP members/supporters embarrassed and confused, let alone Bengal’s civil society! While the party did grow under Ghosh’s stewardship, unfortunately not much of his good work could be sustained.

A fresh round of agitations would effectively deflect public attention from the unusually sordid aspects of the BJP’s ‘functioning’ in Bengal of late: post 2021 Assembly elections, Ghosh and his followers have not concealed their contempt for the hamhanded political campaigning done by central leaders like K. Vijayvargiya and the visiting band of Union ministers. Local objections against central BJP leaders blindly rewarding recruits from the TMC, often overlooking their dubious past, were ignored. This cost the state party dearly indeed. At all levels of the state party unit, there are still bitter complaints about the crores of rupees spent by the central leadership as it conducted its super- charged Bengal campaign---with zero result!

No wonder veterans like former president Tathagata Ray, who does not hide his ire over being sidelined in the BJP on account of his age, attracts considerable support by his public denunciation of what he openly calls ‘the recent antics of some of our senior leaders’ (translated from Bengali).Not much better is the reaction of other party seniors either. Former president Rahul Sinha, commenting on the recent resignation of old BJP leader, actor Joy Banerjee, could not help admitting that the latter’s disillusionment was understandable. ‘The BJP did not support its old faithful leaders/members, who faced extreme oppression from the TMC and the state administration. This has naturally come as a shocker ’, Sinha said.

Majumdar understands that his first task as the new president taking charge during an inner party crisis, is to restore lost morale. The proposed agitation on the fuel price rise should, some observers feel, act as a much needed‘ unifier ‘within a confused party seeking to recover lost ground. His words to party cadre have been significant: ‘Truly we are facing very tough times and many among us feel like giving up politics. But people must recover from setbacks, they resume normal lives even after the death of their parents, their near and dear ones,’ he reminded them.

While the state BJP has little to lose in the present situation — even a poorly conducted agitation would not damage its badly dented image as of now — the TMC has to decide how it will respond to future programmes that opposition parties must carry out to retain their political relevance.

TMC top leaders/campaigners, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, are currently busy conducting hectic political campaigns in Tripura and Goa. In the days ahead, with Assembly elections due in five states including Uttar Pradesh, they have plans to extend the TMC”s outreach and mass following in other areas well.

They will pay special attention to developments in Uttar Pradesh, as Ms Banerjee plans to pit herself directly in opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, elected from the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in 2019.

As expected the BJP has not made things easy for the TMC in states where it rules, such as Tripura and Goa. It has handed out the kind of treatment to the aspirant TMC that it has itself faced in West Bengal. In fact, all opposition parties in Bengal, including the Left parties and the Congress, complain of the ruthless oppression of all opposition programmes and activity by the TMC and the state administration not just the BJP.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi faced strong criticism from the TMC over his party’s apparent indifference and lack of support to the TMC as it continued to face various problems in Goa and Tripura as it began its anti BJP campaign.

A response came from senior Congress leader P. Chidambaram who reminded the TMC that at best it would remain a ‘marginal’ force in states like Goa, only cutting into anti-BJP votes won by the grand old party. Significantly, senior BJP leaders had a similar take on the issue: Assam‘s BJP Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma told newsmen he would give the TMC a red carpet welcome if it campaigned in his state: ‘They would cut into Congress votes, not ours’, he clarified.

In case the BJP proceeds with a sustained agitational programme, having nothing to lose, the TMC will face a dilemma.

Will it continue to disallow all opposition gatherings and programmes through the state police as before? In that case, it cannot complain if TMC leaders are not allowed to carry out any programme in Tripura or Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, if the BJP is allowed to carry out its rallies etc normally, there would be every possibility for the saffron camp to recover some of its lost political space. Further, the Left and Congress would accuse the TMC of indirectly helping the BJP, by allowing it to function in the opposition, but not others — a Hobson’s choice!

Again, in case the BJP’s programmes evoke any kind of response, it would interfere with the TMC’s own ambitious expansion plans to set up units in other states and position itself as the strongest national opposition party. Ms Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek may find it necessary in such a situation to extend their stay in Bengal and closely follow future developments, as the Bengal administration may not necessarily respond as readily/effectively to the instructions and commands issued by other senior TMC leaders holding the fort! (IPA Service)