The good thing for the BJP is that both the Home Minister and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi are very practical politicians, working 24x7 for the party and they try to take lessons from defeats. The BJP high command is now determined to prove in the coming state assembly elections to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur that the Bengal results were an exception, the BJP remains the dominant party in the other regions. The series of meetings at the BJP headquarters in the last two weeks including the meeting of the national executive committee and the highly attended workers meetings of Amity Shah in Varanasi on November 12 are indicative of the priority that is being given to the coming assembly polls, especially in Uttar Pradesh

Home Minister is himself handling the strategy for Uttar Pradesh assembly elections with the PM Narendra Modi in the loop and he made it clear at the Varanasi meeting that UP is the real battleground for retaining power in Delhi in 2024 Lok Sabha elections and this assembly polls have to reflect that. In the last assembly elections, BJP got 325 seats out of the total of 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh and this time, Shah has set the target at 300. Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister is the mascot for election campaign in the state with all help in campaigning from Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in the next one hundred days before the polls.

Reports coming out of the decisions of the meeting suggest that under Shah, a foolproof strategy has been worked out for each polling booth in UP with the accompanying campaigning strategy and the financial resources. For all practical purposes, UP poll will be the test of Shah's strategy in terms of mobilisation of organisation and resources which will be replicated in other states, taking into account the specifics of each state. BJP leadership will make use of every means available to them to retain power in the four states where the party is ruling. Punjab which is presently ruled by the Congress, is not on the radar of BJP's winning states. The party is in bad shape in Punjab and there are apprehensions that the traditional base of the BJP in Punjab, has eroded to a substantial extent. So the full focus of the BJP leadership is virtually on the four ruling states, especially Uttar Pradesh.

BJP is battle ready but what about the Congress. The Congress is the main challenger to the BJP in the three states - Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. In Punjab, the Congress, despite all the inner party fighting, is in a position to retain power as other parties including Akalis, AAP and BJP are in bad shape. The new Congress chief minister has been received well by the dalits who comprise 31 per cent of the population in the state. Former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh may not damage much even if he aligns with the BJP in the assembly poll.

So, that way, the Congress has the main task to defeat the BJP in the three other states, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. In Uttar Pradesh, despite all hype over Priyanka Gandhi's campaign and her announcement about 40 per cent of seats for the women in the coming polls, the ground situation does not look bright as the Congress organisation is in a bad shape and the party is very weak compared to the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in terms of organisational and financial sources. By all accounts, SP has emerged as the main opponent of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh polls and BJP knows it also.

That is why all BJP attacks are aimed at SP and its leader Akhilesh Yadav. Akhilesh has recently organised huge rallies and SP has been able to mobilise its cadres for reaching the remotest parts of the state. In terms of resources, SP is no match to BJP but SP has the capacity to give BJP a good fight. Out of 403 seats, there are around 80 to 100 seats where the Congress has some support base but on its own, the Congress can only win a few. Priyanka told a meeting of party workers in UP on November 14 that the Congress will have no alliance with any other party in the state and the party will field candidates in all 403 seats. If this is the final position of the Congress high command that will be a big boon to the BJP in the state. In many SP strongholds, the Congresss candidates, with their limited support base, will only cut into anti-BJP votes.

On the contrary, if the Congress wants to defeat BJP in UP assembly polls which is crucial for 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the ideal course will be to have some understanding between the Congress and the SP in the marginal seats so that BJP’s total tally comes down by avoiding the division of anti-BJP votes. . The Congress strategists should come to some understanding with SP on the basis that the Congress will be contesting in less seats in the assembly elections, but the party should be given more seats compared to its strength by the SP in the Lok Sabha elections. Such an understanding will be helpful for both the Congress and the SP and this is the way BJP can be defeated in assembly elections in UP.. The SP has its focus on capturing the state government while the Congress high command can pitch for 2024 Lok Sabha elections with more seats from UP with SP support.

In the recent by polls to 30 state assemblies, the Congress did well surprising the BJP. In six states, where there was a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP, the Congress was a clear winner. The Congress won eight seats whereas BJP won seven. The distinctive g feature is that the Congress won by more vote shares and in Himachal, the ruling state of BJP, in the three assembly seats, the Congress won with a vote share of 48.9 per cent as against BJP's 28.05 per cent.

So there is a downslide in BJP;s vote share as against the Congress in the Hindi belt and this has made the BJP leadership panicky. The Congress has to now equally warm up for the polls in three states where the BJP is in power and the Congress is the main challenger. In Goa, the Congress had a good support base but the party lost it due to its organisational weakness and lack of direction from the central leadership. Last time in 2017 assembly elections, the Congress failed to form the government despite getting the largest number of seats. There was total inaction of the high command for two days in conducting negotiations with other allies. In the process, the BJP not only gobbled the other legislators but also organised defections from the Congress.

The Congress must ensure that the party nominates trusted persons who cannot be bought by BJP after elections. The Trinamool Congress which has set up its base in Goa is hopeful that a large number of people who did not vote in the last elections and a lot of BJP supporters will extend support to them.TMC will be contesting both the Congress and the BJP but if no party gets majority, Congress and TMC can have coalition against the BJP. In Uttarakhand, the factionalism in BJP is still continuing. The Congress leadership can really challenge the BJP government in this hilly state where the common people are suffering a lot due to the malfunctioning of the state government.

For Manipur, apart from streamlining the organisation, the Congress has to talk with the parties who are opposed to the BJP. The Congress on its own, is in no position to take on BJP in this small state. Every state needs a specific strategy and to take that into effect, the organisational and financial resources have to be mobilised.BJP is much ahead of the Congress in those two areas. But in elections, finally the voters speak and the ballot boxes may give surprises without taking cognizance of the financial muscle power of the ruling party. The Congress has to reach those non-committed floating voters who took sides with the BJP in last elections but are now disillusioned. They only will decide the outcome of the coming assembly elections. (IPA Service)