This once again proves the nature of decision making in this regime. The implementation of three farm laws was Modi’s idea and he withdrew these also unilaterally. In the process, in the last one year, countless deaths of farmers took place and there were continuous confrontation between the farmers on dharna and the BJP government’s law and order machinery.

What was unique about the farmers movement which began from November 26 last year, was the mature leadership of the kisan unions and the dedication of the participants. More than five hundred organisations came under the banner of Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) and in the last twelve months, the leadership headed by Rakesh Tikait operated ina most democratic manner, allowing all political parties who support their cause to express their views at the dharnas, but always retaining the identity of the movement.

As a result, the opposition parties, supporting the movement, took the hint and did not make any move to take political capital out of the agitation. The two kisan organisations of the CPI and the CPI(M) led by Atul Kumar Anjaan and Ashok Dhalwale respectively did their most in mobilizing their supporters in support of the movement, but they did not interfere in the working of the leadership. Atul Anjaan was constantly in touch with Tikait and this interaction between the SKM leaders and the left peasant organisations helped the movement in avoiding the adventurist path. Some anti-India elements tried to disrupt the course of the movement but they failed due to the vigilance of the leadership.

A review of the performance of the Modi regime since 2014 shows that this was the first time that the Prime Minister had to make a total retreat in terms of a major policy measure which he tried to project as the harbinger of a new India. The BJP government has implemented other major decisions, like demonetization, withdrawal of section 370 relating to Jammu & Kashmir, passing of CAA legislation the introduction of four labour codes, announcement of country wide lockdown in March 2020 without giving any notice, but all these have been operational without any major disruption to the Modi Government. The farmers are the only interests group which fought valiantly for a year and brought down the macho Prime Minister to his knees. This is certainly a watershed in Indian politics.

The massive unity of the farmers has been able to force the Modi government to withdraw the farm laws, but what about the other anti-people measures which still remain and for the withdrawal of which, the responsibility of launching movement, lies with the opposition. Is the opposition parties including the Congress ready to take forward this gains from the success of the farmers movement to its logical end- the removal of the BJP government from power in 2024 Lok Sabha polls? Only three months are left for the beginning of the first phase of the assembly polls in February/March 2022 to the five states and this will be followed by the end of 2022 in two other states. The outcome of the state assembly elections will have its impact on the course of the next round of assembly elections in 2023 and finally the Lok Sabha polls in 2024.

The opposition parties including the Congress have to take lessons from the farmers movement in conducting themselves in the coming months before the Lok Sabha polls in April/May 2024. The responsibility lies more with the Congress which is the major national party now challenging the BJP in most of the states, despite its organizational weaknesses. Is the Congress aware of its share of responsibilities in taking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024 polls?

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 303 of the 436 Lok Sabha seats it contested. In 191 seats where its main opponent was the Congress, it won 175 or 92 per cent. Of the 245 where it faced a party other than the Congress, it won 128, that is 52 per cent. Of the 12 current BJP Chief Ministers, 10 serve in states where the Congress is the main Opposition. In the remaining 18 states, the BJP has only two Chief Ministers, and is out of power entirely in 12. The recent assembly election results have shown that the Congress has started regaining and in the Hindi speaking states, the party performed much better than the BJP, especially in Himachal which is ruled by BJP and the assembly elections are due in November 2022.

Right now, the first task of the opposition is to meet again and decide on a minimum programme as also the constitution of a core committee as was decided at the August 20 meeting of the 19 parties hosted by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi. Since then, no interaction has taken place and fissures have appeared between the relationship of the Congress with both Trinamool Congress and the RJD. At the moment, the first issue that has to be cleared is that the non-BJP opposition will work as one against the BJP in Lok Sabha elections, irrespective of the nature of unity in the assembly polls. And the second is that no party should project any Prime Minister candidate of its own before the LS polls. The candidate selection will be made only after the results are out, on the basis of the strength of the parties in the new Lok Sabha as also the acceptability.

Of late, Mamata Banerjee has been vocal in criticizing the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi and her key leaders are openly talking of her as the projected PM candidate for the opposition. This has to stop immediately if the TMC really wants to topple BJP in the 2024 elections. In fact, the assembly elections will indicate the ground level strength of the opposition parties and the outcome should help the parties in assessing their respective strength before the Lok Sabha polls. In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party may not ally with the Congress in the assembly elections, but in Lok Sabha elections, the two parties can have understanding on the basis of proper assessment of the strength.

Similarly in Goa, TMC is putting up candidates in all 40 seats. The Congress also will be putting candidates in all seats along with its allies, TMC is hoping to get support from a part of BJP base as also the uncommitted voters. If there is a hung assembly, the Congress and TMC can join hands after the assembly elections. The entry of TMC in Goa will not naturally dent into Congress vote base, it can dent BJP base also. There are a large number of voters in Goa who are angry with both BJP and the Congress. TMC is focusing on them.

RJD leader Lalu Yadav may be angry with the Congress due to by poll results but RJD is always with the Congress against the BJP. Similarly, Mamata also is with the opposition including the Congress at national level. Some veteran like Sharad Pawar has to work again for the holding of the opposition conclave including the Congress to decide the next course of action. There was no follow up of August 20 meeting by the Congress president. Time is running out. The winter session of Parliament begins later this month. There are so many pending issues to be discussed.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is worried about Pegasus hearing in Supreme Court which will take place in January next. This is the right time for the opposition to meet again and concretise the plan of action. Narendra Modi may be on backfoot now after his surrender on farm laws to the farmers movement. But he has the power and energy to give a big fight and he is determined to retain his power after 2024. The opposition has to match him by making full use of programmatic unity and understanding. The Congress and the opposition can miss this opportunity in their own peril. (IPA Service)