Although the opposition from the Mandal group was expected, the government does not seem to have anticipated how determined the Yadav duo of Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh will be to prevent any attempt to pass the bill. Their defiance underlined the fact that an arithmetical advantage can be nullified by violent filibustering, however unfortunate such tactics may be.

The government had hoped that the majority support for the bill provided by the Congress, the BJP and the Left will ensure its passage notwithstanding the disruptions by the critics. But democratic norms presuppose that the legislature must not only approve of a measure, but do so in congenial circumstances showing a general consensus in its favour. Otherwise, the step will be seen as a negation of democracy, irrespective of the size of the majority. This, in turn, will lead to accusations about the government ramming through the bill, thereby depriving it of its legitimacy.

The other factor which was highlighted by the opposition of the RJD, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP was that reservations were slippery, self-serving affairs. Once the sops - or crutches for cripples, as has been crudely said - were promised to disadvantaged sections, other claimants were bound to demand similar assistance. Hence, the demand from the RJD and others for quotas within the quota of reserved seats for women from the backward castes, Dalits and Muslims.

This is, of course, a longstanding plea. It had been responsible for stalling the passage of the bill since its introduction in 1996. As is known, the fear of the Mandalites was that the reservations for women would be cornered mostly by the upper castes because of their greater presence in the corridors of power via parties like the Congress and the BJP and even the communists.

The only way out, according to the Mandal group, was to set aside seats for the OBCs, Dalits and Muslims. If Mulayam Singh Yadav was particularly insistent on reservations for the Muslims, the reason was evidently his desire to win back the support of this community in U.P. which had apparently deserted his party in the wake of his alliance with Kalyan Singh. The Samajwadi Party leader is clearly not very sure about the Muslim votes even after the rupture of his ties with Kalyan Singh.

However, the opposition of the RJD, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP was probably not the only reason why the government could not keep its promise to get the bill passed on the day of its introduction in the Upper House. Another factor was the not-so-secret dissatisfaction among a large number of male MPs from virtually all parties about the rotation system which would deprive a third of them of their constituencies via a draw of lots.

What this deprivation will mean is that in course of time, no M.P. of either gender will be willing to nurse his or her constituency in case the new system takes it out of his or her hands. Although the disruptive impact of this rotation will only be evident in the future, for the present it is the fear of being summarily evicted from a constituency which is unnerving the MPs.

But it isn't only the future which is proving troublesome. The withdrawal of support to the government by the RJD and the Samajwadi Party with their 26 MPs means that the government will be unsure of facing the challenge of cut motions from the BJP and the Left when the budget is discussed. Although the government may still have the majority to survive, it is not sure what will happen if the mercurial Mayawati joins Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh to needle the government.

Besides, the fact that the government will be weakened by the withdrawal of support may encourage allies like the DMK, the Trinamool Congress and the NCP to be more assertive than before. Till now, they have been quietly toeing the government's line, as on the fuel price hike. But they may not be so acquiescent from now on. As a result, the government's economic reforms may run into trouble, especially with regard to disinvestments.

There is little doubt that the government did not consider all aspects of the situation before deciding to push through the women's bill. It was evidently misled by the promise of support from the BJP and the Left. Sonia Gandhi, too, may have forced its hand since it has been her pet project for a long time. As on Telangana, it acted in haste.(IPA Service)